Como will almost certainly have the ball in Florence, and that is the awkward part for both sides. Fabregas's team had more of the ball in all six games we have stats for, four of them above 60%, yet their last two league games turned 46 shots into zero goals. Now the two players who had been finishing that pressure, Assane Diao and Moise Kean, are both out. And Fiorentina, 18th on four points, have looked like a better team without the ball than with it.
The Fiorentina split is the bit I keep coming back to. In the two league games where they had 60% or more, they lost both: 0-3 at home to Frosinone and 1-2 at Genoa. With under 43% they won 4-2 at Venezia on 3.31 xG, drew 1-1 with Napoli, and even the 1-2 home defeat to Torino came with an xG of 1.67 to 0.58 in their favour. Franco Mastantuono scored a hat-trick in that Venezia game, and SOS Fanta reports he is set to start on the right despite a hand fracture.
Como's side of it has changed in midweek. Diao, who had four goals across those six games, scored in Rotterdam and went off injured five minutes later; Fabregas puts him out for two to three weeks. Kean, a former Fiorentina player, is left out of the squad. That leaves Anastasios Douvikas leading the line for a team that hasn't won in any competition since 14 September, and that comes into this match off a Champions League trip while Fiorentina have had over a week.
What makes me hesitate is Vanoli himself. He told Sportmediaset that what happened against Genoa "must be a lesson" and that he has asked the players to forget the table and play with courage. If courage means going after the ball against a side that keeps it this well, Fiorentina walk into the type of game they have lost. If it means sitting in shape and trusting Mastantuono on the break, they get the game they have played best, against a Como attack missing its two most direct runners. Fiorentina also have Parisi out and Ranieri doubtful with a compressed nerve in his foot, so the back line may be reshuffled either way.
Which version of brave do you expect from a team in 18th, at home, with a crowd that wants them to take the game?
