Momo

Mirassol v Internacional is billed as a six-pointer, one point apart in 15th and 17th, but I find the stranger part is how differently the two have been getting their results. Inter have won, won and drawn their last three league games with 28% to 37% of the ball, and the two under their new coach Eduardo Baptista (the Corinthians win and the Grenal draw) were exactly that. Mirassol have shown two faces: 76% of the ball and 27 shots in a 2-2 with Vitoria, and 50% of it and 12 shots in a 2-0 over Botafogo. So the question I'd put is which Mirassol turns up against a side that is happy to give it to them, and what Inter's patched-up back end does with the volume.

Everyone will talk about Ufuk Talay facing his old club in the A-League opener, but the more useful thing to ask is who has the less-broken-in group. Sydney FC come in with a coach, Patrick Kisnorbo, who took them to last season's grand final, yet they are missing their goalkeeper Gus Hoefsloot (wrist) and have named five players who could make A-League debuts. The Wanderers are the reverse: a new-look squad with no listed absences, but a coach who knows Sydney's dressing room better than anyone on the other side.

The Marcos Rojo registration story will get the headlines, but what strikes me about this semifinal first leg is that both teams are missing pieces in the same zone. Estudiantes have lost Rojo to a Conmebol rejection and, per Itatiaia, have two more centre-backs suspended (Tomás Palacios and González Pírez). Flamengo have no Jorginho, Arrascaeta or Evertton Araújo, so Saúl and Paquetá are expected to fill the middle. My question is who ends up more exposed in the space between midfield and back line, and whether Estudiantes' answer to a patched-up defence is to sit deeper and hand the ball to a rebuilt Flamengo midfield.

Salzburg and Milan both came out of their last league games having had most of the ball and not much to show for it, so I'd ask who is happy to give it up in this match. Salzburg's coach Danny Röhl has said they will take on "a different role than is usually the case in the Bundesliga" at home to Milan, which sounds like an admission that the ball may not be theirs. Milan are rotating and have lost their main centre-back, so the useful question is whether a rebuilt back line is more comfortable with the ball or without it.

Shanghai Shenhua's 7-1 against Yunnan Yukun is the scoreline everyone will carry into Phnom Penh, but I'd read the squad news before the scoreline. A Sina preview lists three outfield regulars still away on Asian Games call-ups (Zhu Chenjie, Wu Xi, Yang Haoyu), says only three foreign players are available, and names Latang as suspended. My guess, and it is only a guess from the transliteration, is that Latang is Rafael Ratão, who scored three of those seven goals. Svay Rieng's coach has said publicly he won't park the bus against strong sides, so the question is what an open game looks like for a Shenhua team that is rotating.

Fluminense's last five games read better on the scoreboard than on the chance count, and that is the thing I'd hold up against the Palmeiras tie. They scored 9 goals from 6.35 xG and conceded 7 from 9.29 against, so they have been lucky or clinical at both ends at once. Palmeiras are the reverse: 9 goals from 11.15 xG, and only 4 conceded from 4.54. In a semifinal first leg I'd ask which of those gaps closes first, not who has the better squad.

Cesc Fàbregas says Feyenoord want to play attacking, dominant football, and a 5-0 and a 7-0 in the last month make that easy to believe. But in the league game where the other side actually had more of the ball, against AZ, Feyenoord won 2-0 with 43% possession and still had 15 shots to 12. Como's last match, a 0-0 with Roma, was the mirror image: 66% of the ball and 19 shots, with nothing to show for it even a man up from the 53rd minute. So I'd ask who is comfortable being the team without the ball in this match, because it may not be the side everyone expects.

Boca's first-leg problem against Vasco isn't just that captain Leandro Paredes is out, it's that their recent games show two different Bocas: one that wins without the ball, and one that has 69% of it and still concedes as many shots as it takes. Against Instituto they had that possession and gave up 12 shots to 11 in a 2-2, which is the game Paredes was injured in. Vasco arrive after a 0-0 at Remo that their own coach partly put down to attention drifting toward this tie, so the question is who treats a semifinal first leg as a game to win and who treats it as the first half of a 180-minute job.

Galatasaray say they will attack Barcelona at home, and I don't doubt it, but the useful question is what their attacking has cost them in the games where it didn't work. Against Kasimpasa last week they had 25 shots and 2.40 xG, yet it was 1-0 at the break and level at 1-1 after 68 minutes before two goals at the very end. Their two heavy defeats this season came the other way around: 0-4 at Trabzonspor and 1-3 at Sporting in the opening Champions League game. Barcelona, who have been taking 70 to 80 percent of the ball in their recent league games, are a different kind of opponent for that profile, so I'd watch what Galatasaray's first ten minutes of pressing leave behind them.

Cong An Ha Noi against Kashima in the Champions League Elite looks like a 7-1 side visiting a 1-4 side, but I'd read the two scorelines more cautiously than that. Kashima's most recent game, a 2-0 home win over Gamba Osaka four days ago, was one they lost on xG (1.24 to 1.71), while Hanoi's 1-4 at Gamba had xG of 1.36 to 2.12. So the gap the opening-round results suggest is wider than the gap in chances, and the real question is whose legs are fresher for a second match in quick succession.

Bragantino's six games without a win look like a team in trouble, but the two most recent ones were the most one-sided games they have played in the stretch: 33 shots to 8 in a 1-1 with Mirassol, and 23 to 8 in a 0-1 at Atletico-MG. Cruzeiro come in with the opposite profile, a team that has been winning without needing much of the ball. I'd watch whether Bragantino's volume can turn into early box entries, because Cruzeiro's last away win came from fewer chances than the other side had.

Coventry's only league goal this season was scored by a wing-back, assisted by their goalkeeper, in a game where they had 38% of the ball and lost the xG count. For the upcoming match against Newcastle they have no senior striker at all, so the question isn't whether they can score "like a team with strikers" but whether that one kind of goal can happen twice. I'd keep an eye on how Newcastle's patched-up back line handles direct play, rather than on the table position.

Albacete arrive at Valladolid with one point from eight games, a new coach who has had a handful of training sessions, and a squad list the club has decided not to publish. The tempting read is "bottom side, nothing to lose, easy visit for 17th place". I'd be slower than that, because Valladolid's own coach is publicly warning that this is the team in the division with the fewest points relative to what it deserves, and Valladolid have already dropped points to a bottom side this season.

Pachuca and Necaxa have been playing two different halves of football lately, and the upcoming match is where those halves meet. In their last two games in our records Pachuca were out-created before the break (xG 0.91 to 2.39, both of those opponents scoring first) and then took over after it (2.59 to 1.18). Necaxa have been the reverse: 2.60 xG in the first halves of their last two, only 0.54 in the second halves, and no second-half goal. I'd watch whether Necaxa's good opening spell is enough to put them in front before the half where Pachuca have been strongest.

Freiburg have scored inside the first 35 minutes of all four of their league games this season, and Schalke's only league goal conceded before the 79th minute came in the 18th at Augsburg. That is the collision I'd look at here, more than third place against twelfth. If Schalke are still level at the hour, this is the kind of game they have been comfortable in; the one time they fell behind early, it came apart after a red card.

Como against Roma looks like a clash of volume and efficiency, but the thing I'd actually watch is what Roma do with a lead. In their last three games Roma were ahead at half-time every time (2-0 v Inter, 1-0 at Torino, 1-0 v Fenerbahce) and in every one of them the opponent had the better second-half xG. Como have been the side producing shots (27 at Frosinone, 29 v Parma) without a steady return, so if Roma get their usual first-half goal the question is whether Como's pressure arrives in time to matter.

Tigre against Banfield sets a side that has been scoring only after the hour against one that keeps scoring just before the break, so the real question is who gets the first goal and what the half-time scoreline looks like. In their last three league games in our records Tigre conceded first every time (6th, 14th and 60th minute) and all three of their own goals came from the 57th minute on. Banfield have scored before half-time in each of their last three, then watched the lead or the level score slip after the break. I'd watch the opening half hour more than the table.

Manchester United against Tottenham is a meeting of two sides that keep winning the territory battle and getting little back for it, so I'd look at the first goal rather than at who has the better squad. United are 12th with one league win from five, Tottenham 20th with no win and two goals scored. Both lean on volume (United's 29 shots at Fulham, Tottenham's 20 against Aston Villa), and in both cases the volume has not been the same thing as control of the result.

Cerezo Osaka against Yokohama F. Marinos is a match between a home side that rarely concedes and an away side that keeps scoring first but has not been closing games. Cerezo have conceded once in four league games at home and have scored only five, while Marinos scored inside the opening 20 minutes in each of their last three league games. What I'd watch is not who is in better form but whether an early Marinos goal gets protected this time, because two of their three recent leads on the road did not hold up.

Instituto against Boca Juniors is a match where I'd be careful with both teams' last results, because each was shaped by a sending-off. Instituto's two most recent league wins (4-1 away at Independiente, 3-1 at home to Talleres) both came against opponents who lost a player just before the break. Boca's 2-0 at San Lorenzo also came against ten men. What I'd watch is how the first hour goes if everyone is still on the pitch: that is the version of this game neither side has shown much of lately.