Charlotte's preseason was not a team waiting for players to come back. It was the exact guard group that takes the floor in this match, and that group kept giving the ball away. Brooklyn's starting five is unchanged from preseason and forced turnovers in every game it played. When one side's repeated leak meets the other side's repeated method, last season's records matter less than who is actually on the court.
White, Knueppel, Boswell and Grant Williams are all out for Charlotte, and none of them played a single preseason game. So Charlotte's numbers already describe this roster: 25, 30 and 24 turnovers against Brooklyn, Boston and Memphis, and only about 43% on twos. That leaves Schroder, Allen, O'Neale, Sion James and the young handlers living on three-point volume.
Brooklyn's five of Demin, Ellis, Porter Jr., Randle and Sharpe forced 16 to 25 turnovers in all four of its preseason games, with double-digit steals each night. Brooklyn turns it over too, but Charlotte forced only 11 to 19 a game, so it can't pay Brooklyn back the same way. Charlotte also lacks the inside scoring that hurt Brooklyn at Miami.
The key matchup is Charlotte's backcourt against Demin and Ellis at the point of attack. Brandon Miller is back and is Charlotte's only real creator left, but he was on the floor for the 30-turnover game at Boston and the 24-turnover game at Memphis. If Brooklyn loads up on him, the ball ends up with Schroder and the reserve handlers.
The pressure should show early, starters against starters, with steals turning into transition points in the first half, much like when these units met in preseason and Brooklyn pulled away by 34. Charlotte's route back is a slower half-court game and offensive rebounds, the way it beat Milwaukee, but that showed up in only one game of four. Brooklyn also comes in at home with more rest.
That's why I'm siding with Brooklyn to win this one outright.
