Two Asian basketball games where the steadier mechanism belongs to the side the market rates lower. In Ulsan, a home team built on two-point scoring meets a visitor whose weakest area is its interior defence. In Sendai, a home side that lives on volume threes meets a visitor whose perimeter defence has been its most reliable part. In both games the visitors' or favourites' strongest route depends on shooting variance, and the other side's route repeats from game to game.
Mobis score inside. Gage Prim and Darius Bazley are both two-point scorers, and the team is second in the league in two-pointers made and fourth in two-point percentage, while sitting ninth in made threes. LG are the opposite: high three-point volume and very few turnovers. Their soft spot is the paint. In the four games I could split, opponents made 75 of 111 twos, including one game with Asem Marei back.
The key matchup is Mobis' imports against LG's frontcourt. When Goodwin is LG's import on the floor, Mobis' big is guarded by Yang Hong-seok or Tamayo, and LG coach Cho said after the last game that his team is struggling with exactly that. Marei is back from his eye injury but picked up five fouls in his return. Yoo Ki-sang returns on limited minutes, which adds some shooting but does not change LG's shape. Rest is even.
LG will take their threes, and a hot night can carry them, but Mobis' route is the one that shows up every game. I expect a tight game decided by the paint against the three-point line. That's why I'm siding with Mobis at home.
In Sendai, the home side wins with threes and with Culver, who is on a run of 30-point games. Yokohama's defence has held opponents to about 30 percent from deep across seven games, including Ryukyu and Brex twice. Yokohama's own engine is Kotsar, offensive rebounding and free throws, and that attacks Sendai's thinnest area: they are often out-rebounded and send teams to the line.
The market leans on Yokohama's heavy home defeat to Levanga a few days ago. That game came without Livers and Arai, and Levanga won it inside the arc, which is not how Sendai score. McGusty and King Kai were already missing when Yokohama beat Ryukyu and Chiba and stayed close twice at Brex. Sendai themselves have won big at home only twice in six.
The likely flow is Sendai ahead through the third quarter on their threes and Yokohama closing in the fourth, where they have been strong all season while Sendai let teams back in late. That's why I'm siding with Yokohama to keep this close.
