Two games where the way each side plays tilts the margin more than the names suggest. In Tokyo, the league leaders build their leads at the free-throw line and with tidy ball control, and the visitors lose exactly those two counts. In Almaty, a possession side that dominates the ball in Europe has kept turning that control into narrow scorelines and late goals against. Both games look like one team in charge, but for different reasons the final margin should look different.
Alvark sit top of the table, and they do not win by out-shooting people. They win the possession count. They took 30 free throws against Akita, 28 at Gunma, 26 at Osaka and 24 at Chiba, and they turn it over only 5 to 12 times a game. Their lead grows late: the third and fourth quarters are where the gap opens.
Ibaraki, under new coach Paul Henare, lose both of those counts. Across eight box scores they gave up 18 to 33 free-throw attempts while taking far fewer themselves, and they commit around 14 turnovers a game. Their two wins came from forcing 20 turnovers at Kawasaki and from a 16-of-40 three-point night against Osaka. The first route meets a team that rarely gives the ball away, and opponents shoot about a third from deep against Alvark.
Vic Law is back for Ibaraki, which makes their wing rotation stronger. Alvark have been without Lachlan Olbrich since early October and have kept winning, with Johnson, Hogg, Jarreau and Rossiter covering those minutes. The likely flow is a close first quarter, then free throws pile up as Ibaraki foul on drives, and the home side pulls away after the break. Ibaraki's own home losses to Brex and the Dolphins were by 11 and 12. That's why I'm siding with Alvark to win this by a clear margin.
In Almaty, Panathinaikos have had 60 to 71 percent of the ball and 18 to 31 shots a game in Europe against Paks, CSKA 1948, Hradec and Borac. Across seven of those games they never won by two goals and conceded in every one, often late: 89th and 90th minute against Hradec from two up, 80th against Borac from two up, 87th at CSKA.
They also arrive after a seven-hour flight in the middle of a three-game week, and without their playmaker Ounahi, who is out for the season, plus Jagušić and Grbić. Kairat sit deep, counter through Gual, Edmilson and Jukkola, and have a keeper in Anarbekov who saved a penalty at Riga. Their heavy defeats in Europe came against Anderlecht, a stronger side, and one of those came after a red card before half-time.
I expect the visitors to have the ball and Kairat to hold their block. Panathinaikos usually find a goal around the hour, and then comes their late lapse window. That's why I'm siding with Kairat to keep this close at home.
