[26-27 Europa League] Juventus vs Stade Rennes preview Kick-off: October 22, 16:45 UTC
Juventus and Stade Rennes meet at Allianz Stadium in Turin for matchday three of the UEFA Europa League league phase, with kick-off at 16:45 UTC on October 22. Juventus have won their first two matches in the competition but are struggling in Serie A, while Stade Rennes have just ended a 17-match winless run in the Europa League as they chase the Ligue 1 leaders. This match pits the home side’s wide attacks against the visitors’ build-up from the back.
1. Match overview and team form
In the standings published by the data centre on October 21, Juventus are top of the Europa League table with two wins from two, seven goals scored and one conceded. Stade Rennes are 13th with one win and one draw, two goals scored and one conceded. With only two of the eight matches played, Juventus’ wins over NEC Nijmegen and Celta Vigo came against teams who were also near the bottom of the table at the time. Stade Rennes’ results came against Sturm Graz and OFI Crete. Recent performances and the way each team attacks and defends offer more insight into this matchup than the standings alone.
Juventus lost 3-0 at home to Lazio on October 19. They sit eighth in Serie A with 11 points from seven matches and have won only once in their last five league games. Against Lazio, they had 58% possession but managed only two shots on target. After conceding first, they committed more players forward, then conceded again after Lazio switched play and counterattacked. Coach Spalletti said the team had little time to recover after the trip to Celta Vigo. Both teams play again four days after their last league match, and Spalletti, who watched from the stands during the Lazio match due to a suspension, will return to the touchline.
Stade Rennes are sixth in Ligue 1 with 13 points from seven matches. In the Europa League, they beat OFI Crete 2-1 to end their 17-match winless run in the competition, but most recently lost 4-3 away to Paris FC. All three of their goals in that match came from Esteban Lepaul penalties. The first goal they conceded came after Ludovic Blas lost possession under pressure following a pass from goalkeeper Brice Samba. They also conceded soon after Mahdi Camara was dispossessed in a 4-0 defeat away to Lyon. These matches show how their build-up has faltered away from home against aggressive opponents.
Key factors for this match Last match: Juventus lost 3-0 to Lazio / Stade Rennes lost 4-3 to Paris FC Europa League after two matches: Juventus, 2 wins, 7 goals scored, 1 conceded / Stade Rennes, 1 win, 1 draw, 2 goals scored, 1 conceded Forward availability: Juventus have indicated Randal Kolo Muani and Nick Woltemade will start together / Stade Rennes expect Esteban Lepaul to miss out with an ankle injury
Across their last 10 competitive matches, Juventus have five wins, three draws and two defeats, with 18 goals scored and 11 conceded. Stade Rennes have five wins, two draws and three defeats, with 18 goals scored and 18 conceded. However, five of Juventus’ 18 goals came in one match against NEC Nijmegen. Stade Rennes have scored 19 and conceded 19 in their last nine competitive away games, and have conceded at least three goals in five of those matches. They can score on the road, but have had trouble keeping opponents out.
Francisco Conceição picked up a left shoulder injury against Lazio and will be unavailable for Juventus, as will Kenan Yıldız, Manuel Locatelli and Khéphren Thuram. Edon Zhegrova is not on the UEFA-registered squad list. Yıldız, Locatelli and Thuram have already missed recent matches, though, so the new setback is Conceição’s absence. He had been receiving the ball between the lines, changing positions and finishing moves. Spalletti has said Randal Kolo Muani and Nick Woltemade will start together. The official line-ups are not yet out, but Juventus have made clear they intend to play with two forwards in the penalty area.
Esteban Lepaul’s availability is a major question for Stade Rennes. He has scored seven of the team’s 15 Ligue 1 goals and struck against Auxerre after running between the centre-backs to meet a long pass. He was also involved in the equaliser against OFI Crete. He is expected to miss out after injuring his ankle late in the Paris FC match, although the club has made no official announcement. If Lepaul is unavailable, Boulaye Dia is expected to lead the line. Both of Dia’s goals this season came in stoppage time against Auxerre, after winning the ball in the opposition half. That is not the same kind of record as Lepaul’s runs in behind and finishing.
Both teams play a league match three days after this fixture. Juventus begin with an away trip to Lecce, followed by another away game at Genoa and a home match against Napoli. Stade Rennes host Strasbourg. Stade Rennes also have to travel to Turin. Juventus’ one win and one draw in the 1999 Intertoto Cup final came in a different era, with different players and coaches, so they offer no basis for judging today’s tactics or result.
2. Matchup analysis
Crosses from the wing-backs and finishing inside the box are at the heart of Juventus’ attack. Their comeback goal against Celta Vigo came when Randal Kolo Muani headed in Andrea Cambiaso’s cross from the left. Kolo Muani also finished a left-wing cross from Kerim Alajbegovic to equalise against Cagliari. If Spalletti starts Kolo Muani and Woltemade together, Stade Rennes’ two centre-backs will each have a forward to deal with when crosses arrive. Stade Rennes conceded a header from a cross from the left against OFI Crete, then let in a goal from a low cross against Paris FC.
For Juventus to repeat that pattern, Zeki Çelik and Cambiaso need to receive the ball in advanced positions. If Stade Rennes’ wide attackers track back, Juventus will have less time to cross. If those attackers stay forward, the wing-backs can push on more easily, but Juventus will have to protect the space behind them when they lose possession. Stade Rennes’ Mahamadou Nagida scored against OFI Crete, while Bryan Reynolds supplied an assist against Auxerre. Rennes’ decision to push their full-backs forward could affect both Juventus’ crossing opportunities and the visitors’ counterattacking chances.
Stade Rennes’ build-up from the back is another key battle. If Juventus’ two forwards press Charlie Cresswell and the other centre-backs, as well as Samba, Stade Rennes risk losing the ball in their own half. The goals conceded against Paris FC and Lyon show that danger. Cresswell also sent a long pass toward Lepaul against Auxerre that led to the opening goal. If Lepaul is out, Stade Rennes will have fewer players who can run behind the defence and finish after a long pass beats the press. We still need to see how aggressively Juventus use their two forwards to press. Their recent high possession numbers alone do not tell us how intense that press will be.
Even if Juventus dominate possession, Stade Rennes have ways to counter. If the teams line up as expected, Juventus’ two midfielders will face Stade Rennes’ three. Weston McKennie could drop deeper to reduce the numerical disadvantage, but if the wing-backs are also pushed up when Juventus lose the ball, Pape Matar Sarr and Douglas Luiz will have to stop the counter first. That echoes the Lazio match, when Juventus committed more players forward in the second half and conceded again. If Camara or Valentin Rongier wins the ball, Stade Rennes can quickly release Dia and the wide attackers. Lepaul is expected to miss out, but where Juventus lose possession in midfield will still matter.
Set pieces offer Stade Rennes another route to score with limited chances. Juventus conceded the opener against Lazio from a header after a short corner. Stade Rennes created Adrien Thomasson’s headed goal against Auxerre from an attack that continued after a corner. We do not know whether they will win as many corners away as they do at home, but if Lepaul’s absence leaves them with fewer open-play finishes, each set piece will carry more weight. Juventus will need to stay focused defensively even if they score first.
Both teams need to avoid their weaknesses early. Juventus have conceded first in each of their last three matches against Celta Vigo, Cagliari and Lazio. Stade Rennes conceded in the seventh minute away to Lyon and the 14th minute away to Paris FC. If Juventus press Stade Rennes’ passing lanes early with two forwards and have their wing-backs supply crosses, the home side could strike first. If Juventus keep the ball as they did against Lazio but fail to create chances inside the box, Stade Rennes will have time to settle in midfield and prepare to counter.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We give Juventus the better chance of controlling the match and scoring first. The plan to start Kolo Muani and Woltemade together gives Juventus two forwards to attack the crossing route that has produced goals recently. Stade Rennes have lost possession in their build-up away to aggressive opponents, and have conceded crosses even with their first-choice defence on the pitch. Spalletti’s return to the touchline also gives Juventus a chance to adjust player positions and crossing supply if the match stalls.
If Stade Rennes fall behind, they can push their full-backs forward to chase the game. That could open space behind Juventus’ wing-backs, but with Lepaul likely out, the visitors will be short of the runs in behind and finishing that make long passes effective. The space Stade Rennes leave when they push forward, and the risk in their build-up, will remain. We expect Juventus to have a chance to add another goal. Juventus have not been efficient in front of goal in the league and have a busy schedule ahead, so we cannot assume the score will quickly get away from Stade Rennes after the first goal.
The market favours Juventus and also leans toward a high-scoring match. We agree with the Juventus win, but Lepaul accounts for seven of Stade Rennes’ league goals. Without him, their attack has less evidence of being able to respond after conceding, even if they push forward. Our score predictions are 2-0 or 1-0 to Juventus, with 2-0 the likelier outcome as Juventus turn the space Stade Rennes leave while chasing the game into a second goal. If Lepaul plays and provides his runs and finishing, or Stade Rennes score first from a set piece, our expectation of a Juventus clean sheet would change.
