[2026-27 UEFA Europa League] Sturm Graz vs Olympique de Marseille: Match Preview Kick-off: October 22, 16:45 UTC
Sturm Graz and Olympique de Marseille meet at Merkur-Arena in Graz, Austria, on October 23 at 1:45 a.m. Korea time for their third match in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League league phase. Neither side has won after two games. The hosts are chasing their first victory without their first-choice goalkeeper, while the visitors need to carry their improved league scoring form into Europe.
1. Match overview and team form
Sturm Graz drew 0-0 at home with Rennes before losing 3-0 away to Bournemouth. They sit 26th with one point. Olympique de Marseille lost 4-1 away to Beşiktaş and 1-0 at home to Olympiacos, leaving them 32nd without a point. Sturm Graz coach Fabio Ingolitsch said his side needed three points, especially at home, to reach the next stage and would be going for the win. Marseille coach Bruno Genesio also stressed the need for points, but did not describe this as a must-win game.
League phase after two matches Record: Sturm Graz 1 draw, 1 loss / Olympique de Marseille 2 losses Goals for and against: Sturm Graz 0 and 3 / Olympique de Marseille 1 and 5 Points: Sturm Graz 1 / Olympique de Marseille 0
Recent results have given both teams a chance to bounce back. Sturm Graz beat city rivals Grazer AK 6-1 at home on October 19, coming from behind after conceding first. Oumar Diakité scored a hat-trick, while Simon Seidl set up three second-half goals with a free kick, a cross and a corner. Diakité had also scored twice in the previous away match at Austria Vienna. But he started on the bench in both Europa League games against Rennes and Bournemouth, and Sturm Graz failed to score in either. To reproduce their derby attack here, Diakité will need to start as expected and Seidl’s delivery must create clear chances.
Marseille ended a five-match losing run in all competitions with league away wins over Troyes, 2-0, and Angers, 5-2. Nouhoum Kamissoko and Himad Abdelli started against Troyes, and Tochukwu Nnadi joined them in the starting line-up against Angers. Genesio said Kamissoko handled defensive duties, Abdelli helped run the attack, and Nnadi won the ball and carried it forward. All three have started together only once, against Angers. Marseille managed five shots to Troyes’ 15, and in the Angers game the data centre put Marseille’s expected goals at 2.71 and Angers’ at 2.21. The two wins are clear, but they do not yet show that Marseille’s defence has settled.
Sturm Graz have won five, drawn three and lost one of their nine home matches in all competitions, scoring 17 and conceding five. Their European home results have been less convincing: they lost 1-0 to Fenerbahçe and drew 0-0 with Rennes. Daniil Khudyakov saved all five shots on target against Rennes. He was forced off against Grazer AK with a lower-leg fracture, so Ammar Helac is expected to start in goal. Helac has played three league matches this season, totalling 242 minutes. Khudyakov’s saves contributed to the home side’s defensive record, so we cannot assume it will carry over with Helac in goal.
Sturm Graz will also be without midfielders Otar Kiteishvili, Gizo Mamaghieshvili and Filip Rózga through injury. Mamaghieshvili and Rózga both joined the attack in the second half against Rennes, and their absence leaves fewer options off the bench. Seedy Jatta and Nelson Weiper are also unavailable, increasing the reliance on Seidl’s delivery and Diakité’s finishing. Marseille will be without centre-back Derek Cornelius. Pierre-Emile Højbjerg took part in the final training session, but Genesio said he would decide on a starting place on matchday.
Sturm Graz played their league match on October 19, while Marseille played on October 18. Both teams have a league home game three days after this match. With several absences, Sturm Graz are expected to bring back most of the starting line-up from the derby. Genesio has signalled changes from the Angers line-up, and Marseille have rotated several positions between league and Europa League matches this season. Sturm Graz have had one fewer day to rest since their last league game and have fewer options off the bench, but they may have the edge in starting-line-up cohesion.
The teams met in the 1999 Champions League, winning one match apiece. The squads, coaches and competition format have all changed since then, so those results tell us little about this game. Their common opponent this season was Rennes. Marseille pressed high in the first half away from home and lost 1-0, while Sturm Graz stayed compact at home and drew 0-0, helped by Khudyakov’s saves. The venues and starting line-ups were different, so the teams’ approaches are more useful to consider than the results themselves.
2. Match-up analysis
Before facing Marseille, Ingolitsch outlined a plan built around a high press and quick transitions. Yet in their two Europa League matches against strong opposition, Sturm Graz prioritised defensive cover and left Diakité on the bench. He is expected to start this time. If Sturm Graz press higher, they could win the ball as Marseille try to play forward through their centre-backs and defensive midfielders, giving the hosts a chance to launch attacks.
Marseille struggled to play out from the back when Beşiktaş pressed them early in their away match. Angel Gomes also lost the ball in midfield before the opening goal. If Sturm Graz win possession in similar areas and quickly find Seidl or Diakité, they could shoot before Marseille get their defence organised. One incident against Beşiktaş is not enough to conclude that Gomes will remain vulnerable to pressure. Marseille’s midfield combination is also uncertain. If Nnadi wins the ball and drives forward as he did against Angers, while Kamissoko holds his defensive position, Sturm Graz may get fewer of the turnovers they want.
Once Marseille play through the press, their wide attacks will matter. Sturm Graz right wing-back Jurgen Heil presses aggressively and joins attacks. If he is caught high and Marseille move the ball to their left, Emerson Palmieri and Igor Paixão can deliver crosses. The opener against Troyes came after the ball was moved quickly from Paixão’s side to Emerson, whose cross was finished by Amine Harit. On the other flank, Timothy Weah’s crossing against Angers will test Sturm Graz left wing-back Luís Balbo. The higher Sturm Graz press, the more important it becomes for both wing-backs to limit the supply from the flanks and recover into defence.
Sturm Graz could also struggle to keep pressing and instead stay compact, as they did against Rennes. Rennes had 64% possession and 17 shots inside the box, repeatedly attacking down the wings with crosses. Khudyakov saved every shot on target that day, but Helac is expected to play this time. That does not mean Marseille will score through possession alone. They had no shots on target in the first half against Troyes and failed to score against Olympiacos despite 56% possession and nine corners. If Sturm Graz stay deep, Marseille will need accuracy in the box as well as a steady supply of crosses.
Set pieces do not clearly favour either side. Seidl created goals from free kicks and corners against Grazer AK, while Diakité finished from close range, including a header and a rebound. Marseille conceded a header from a corner in both the Beşiktaş and Olympiacos matches. Emerson’s corner led to Kamissoko’s winning goal against Angers, while Sturm Graz failed to clear a corner before conceding against Bournemouth. Both teams have quality delivery, so getting to the ball ahead of opponents in the box could decide the outcome.
The squad differences could become more pronounced as the match goes on. Diakité has been substituted after 59 and 64 minutes in his last two league starts and has yet to play a full 90 minutes. Sturm Graz also have few midfield options to bring on. If Marseille make changes, they could introduce attacking players such as Amine Gouiri or Harit in the second half. Genesio once made three substitutions at the same time in the 62nd minute against Olympiacos to strengthen the attack. Marseille have also lost their defensive shape after conceding against Beşiktaş and dropped deep after scoring first against Troyes, allowing a late chance to equalise. Sturm Graz’s fatigue does not automatically mean Marseille will manage the closing stages well.
3. Verdict and prediction
We give Sturm Graz the better chance of scoring first. Ingolitsch is targeting a home win and has announced a high press, while Diakité and Seidl have recently shown in the league that they can turn pressure and set pieces into goals. Marseille could change their starting midfield again, and they have conceded from corners in both Europa League matches. If Sturm Graz take the lead and keep players back, we expect Marseille to attack Helac’s goal with crosses and second-half substitutions.
The market rates an away win more highly, pointing to Sturm Graz’s absentees, Marseille’s squad options and their two recent league away wins. The goalkeeper change and the hosts’ lack of depth are real advantages for Marseille. The key question is how much weight to give Sturm Graz’s failure to score in the Europa League so far. Diakité did not start either of those matches, and the team prioritised defensive cover. The expected line-up and the announced pressing approach are different this time, so we rate the hosts’ chance of scoring early higher.
Our score prediction is 2-1 or 1-1 to Sturm Graz, with a 2-1 home win more likely. We expect Sturm Graz to take the lead with an early press or a Seidl set piece, then add another goal when Marseille commit more players forward. Marseille could pull one back through deliveries from Emerson and Weah or their second-half options. The home press targets the problems Marseille had playing out from the back away to Beşiktaş. Seidl’s delivery also puts pressure on a Marseille defence that has repeatedly conceded from corners in the Europa League. Sturm Graz have few substitutes, but Marseille have also struggled to keep their defensive shape after taking the lead or conceding. If Marseille retain the Angers midfield combination or Højbjerg starts and helps them beat the first press, Sturm Graz’s early scoring outlook weakens and the game moves closer to 1-1.
