[2026-27 UEFA Europa League] Ararat Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar preview and analysis Kick-off: October 22, 16:45 UTC
Ararat Armenia and AZ Alkmaar meet at Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium in Yerevan for matchday three of the UEFA Europa League league phase, kicking off at 16:45 UTC on October 22. Ararat Armenia are looking for their first points, while AZ Alkmaar need points to move into the top 24. In the clubs’ first competitive meeting, the key questions are where the hosts choose to defend and how the visitors turn their possession advantage into goals.
1. Match overview and team form
Ararat Armenia are the first Armenian club to reach the Europa League league phase, but they have lost 4-1 at home to Sparta Prague and 3-1 away to Jagiellonia Białystok. They have conceded seven goals in two matches and sit 34th. In the domestic league, they beat BKMA 1-0 on October 18 and held on to second place with 23 points. They have won at home by keeping goals against them down, but in Europe they have struggled to contain strong attacks.
AZ Alkmaar lost 1-0 away to Sunderland before beating Hapoel Be'er Sheva 2-1 at home, leaving them 20th with three points. They are second in the Eredivisie with 20 points from nine matches. They have scored five goals in their last five competitive games, down from 15 in the previous five. Two of those five goals came from penalties. They still created plenty of chances against Telstar and Hapoel Be'er Sheva. Rather than treating the scoring dip as a broader failure in attack, we should look at how they finish chances against strong away opponents and teams that pack their defence.
| Item | Details | |---|---| | Europa League record | Ararat Armenia: 2 losses, 2 goals scored, 7 conceded / AZ Alkmaar: 1 win, 1 loss, 2 goals scored, 2 conceded | | Domestic league position | Ararat Armenia: 2nd, 23 points / AZ Alkmaar: 2nd, 20 points | | Key team news | Ararat Armenia: Zidane Banjaqui is a doubt / AZ Alkmaar: Jordy Clasie and Kees Smit are out |
Ararat Armenia’s home record offers both encouragement and a reason for caution. They have won seven of their last 10 home matches in all competitions and kept a clean sheet in six. They also beat Riga FC, Shamrock Rovers, Celje and Universitatea Craiova at home in European qualifying this season. But their last two home defeats, against FC Noah and Sparta Prague, were both by three goals or more. Whether the approach that worked in qualifying will hold up against a side of AZ Alkmaar’s level is another matter.
AZ Alkmaar have scored less often away than at home, too. They have recorded three wins, three draws and four losses in their last 10 away matches in all competitions, and failed to score in five. Those goalless games included tough opponents such as Feyenoord and Sunderland, so the away record alone does not settle what to expect from their attack today. Still, they struggled to break down SC Cambuur in their most recent match even after the opposition went down to 10 men in the second half. Their second equaliser came from an 83rd-minute penalty.
This is the first competitive meeting between the sides. One relevant reference point is AZ Alkmaar’s 1-0 Conference League defeat to FC Noah at the same stadium in February 2026. AZ lacked the final pass and were exposed to counter-attacks after throw-ins. The coach and venue are the same today, but the opponent and squads have changed. We cannot use the FC Noah result as a prediction for this match.
The two sides have different team-selection issues. Ararat Armenia have mostly used the same players in their two Europa League matches. Zidane Banjaqui, who scored the opener against Jagiellonia Białystok before going off injured, will need to pass a fitness test shortly before the game. If he is unavailable, Zhirayr Shagoyan could take the left-wing spot, as he did when replacing him. AZ Alkmaar did not take Jordy Clasie, who has a calf problem, on the trip. Kees Smit, Jizz Hornkamp and Stije Resink are also unavailable. Dave Kwakman, Peer Koopmeiners and Waldemar Bischoff are likely to fill the gaps in midfield left by Clasie and Smit.
AZ Alkmaar face the heavier schedule. Ararat Armenia have had about five days to rest since their last league match, compared with about four for AZ. After the trip to Yerevan, AZ host FC Twente on Sunday. Head coach Leeroy Echteld has already made wholesale changes to his starting XI to manage the schedule, and could rotate again here. The forecast around kick-off shows no rain and light winds, so the weather should not particularly favour either team’s style of play.
2. Match-up analysis
Under coach Tulipa, Ararat Armenia have defended at home and won matches with few goals. In the Europa League, where they have yet to take a point, they have also shown a willingness to press for the ball from the start. Against Jagiellonia Białystok, they won possession in the opposition half. Maxence Carlier played a long ball immediately, and Banjaqui ran in behind the defence to score the opener. Ararat are likely to press AZ’s build-up again, then drop back and use long balls to launch attacks if the press is played through.
That approach carries risks. At home to Sparta Prague, Ararat created chances early but conceded twice in quick succession from attacks that began with corners in the 20th and 22nd minutes. They also failed to deal with a ball played into the box from the wing in the second half. If Tulipa has his side push up for long stretches again, AZ can attack the space behind the defence. If Ararat stay deep, AZ will have more of the ball but need to find a way through a crowded defence.
AZ Alkmaar press high and transition quickly between defence and attack. Against Jagiellonia, Ararat tried to play out short from a goal kick and lost the ball just outside their own penalty area, leading to a goal. If they make the same choice again, AZ’s forwards could get chances from close range. If Ararat go long to avoid the press, Kwakman and Koopmeiners will need to collect the second balls and keep AZ’s attacks going. Their partnership with Bischoff created plenty of chances against Telstar and Hapoel Be'er Sheva, though both matches were at home.
Another key duel is AZ’s left winger Ro-Zangelo Daal against Ararat’s right-back Hugo Oliveira. Daal has started all 11 of his appearances this season and scored five goals. Ararat conceded twice to wide attacks against Sparta Prague in the second half. If the winger ahead of Oliveira tracks back, two players can deal with Daal, but Ararat will have fewer players up front for counter-attacks. If they leave that winger forward, Daal will get more one-on-one chances against Oliveira.
Crosses and set pieces could give AZ another way to break down a compact defence. Against Hapoel Be'er Sheva, Koopmeiners headed in a cross from Bischoff. Ararat conceded 13 corners against Sparta Prague and gave up two goals from attacks that started with those set pieces. If AZ keep putting the ball in from wide areas, Ararat’s defenders will need to stay with their opponents in the box. Ararat also scored from a corner against Sparta Prague, so set pieces can be an attacking route for the hosts as well.
At the other end, Ararat’s long balls will test AZ’s defence. When Carlier wins the ball, he can play forward straight away for Artur Serobyan and, if available, Banjaqui to run in behind a high defensive line. AZ’s projected defence includes Wesley Hoot and Mees de Wit, who has started only once this season. Hoot made an error that led to a goal in his start, while Wouter Goes was involved in the build-up to a goal conceded against Feyenoord when trying to clear the ball. We should not assume those mistakes will happen again. It also matters whether AZ can press Carlier as soon as they lose the ball and stop him playing the long pass in the first place.
Banjaqui’s availability changes the terms of this contest. If he plays, AZ’s defence will have to watch both Serobyan and Banjaqui making runs in behind. If he misses out, more of Ararat’s transition threat will run through Serobyan, and AZ’s full-backs may have more freedom to join attacks. His absence alone would not remove Ararat’s chances of scoring, though. They can still threaten from set pieces and capitalise on defensive errors.
An early goal could shape both coaches’ decisions. Ararat conceded twice in two minutes against Sparta Prague and let Jagiellonia equalise just two minutes after taking the lead. If AZ score first, the hosts may push forward in search of an equaliser and leave more space for further attacks. If the score stays level into the second half, Echteld could bring on several players in the 60th to 70th minute, as he has in other matches, to change the attack. Against SC Cambuur, though, those changes still did not produce an open-play goal.
3. Final verdict and prediction
AZ Alkmaar are more likely to win. Even if Ararat Armenia give up possession and sit deep, AZ can attack the box through Daal’s runs down the flank and Bischoff’s crosses. If Ararat press higher, AZ can use the space behind them. The visitors will be more likely to score first if the home side lose track of their opponents at corners, as they did against Sparta Prague.
There is not enough evidence to expect a wide margin. Ararat scored in both of their league-phase defeats, and they have ways to attack through Carlier’s long passes and runs from their wingers. AZ’s expected defence would also differ from their usual first-choice line-up. AZ have had trouble scoring away and against compact defences recently. This is where our view differs from the market’s tendency to favour a big AZ win on the basis of the league standings and Ararat’s seven goals conceded.
Our score prediction is 1-2 or 0-2 to AZ Alkmaar. A 1-2 looks most likely if AZ score twice from crosses and set pieces, while Banjaqui, if fit to play, helps Ararat reply through a transition or set piece. If Banjaqui is out, Ararat’s transition threat will depend more heavily on Serobyan, making 0-2 more likely. This forecast depends on AZ finding a way through Ararat’s defending in the box. If the hosts deal with corners and crosses, AZ could again struggle to provide the final pass and the match could finish 1-1.
