[26-27 UEL Europa League] Lech Poznań vs Sunderland preview and analysis Kick-off: October 22, 16:45 UTC
Lech Poznań and Sunderland meet at the Poznań Stadium for Matchday 3 of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Lech, second in the domestic league, sit bottom of the Europa League table, while Premier League bottom side Sunderland have won both of their Europa League games. Their results in different competitions tell only part of the story. The starting line-ups and second-half substitutions could prove more decisive.
1. Match overview and team form
Lech Poznań lost 4-0 to both Crystal Palace and Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League. They have no points and sit 36th. In Poland’s Ekstraklasa, though, they have won their last three matches 5-1, 4-1 and 6-1, and are second, one point behind the leaders. Sunderland beat AZ Alkmaar 1-0 and Tōhōens 2-1 in Europe to sit ninth, but they are bottom of the Premier League after taking one win and one draw from their first seven matches this season.
Europa League: Lech Poznań 36th, 0 points, 0 goals scored and 8 conceded / Sunderland 9th, 6 points, 3 scored and 1 conceded Domestic league: Lech Poznań 2nd in the Ekstraklasa, three straight wins / Sunderland bottom of the Premier League, four straight defeats Last 10 competitive matches: Lech Poznań at home, 29 goals scored and 15 conceded / Sunderland away, 16 scored and 19 conceded
Lech Poznań’s two European defeats came in different ways. Against Crystal Palace, the shot count was close at 17-16, with six shots on target apiece. Lech created an early chance for Mikael Ishak, but errors on a throw-in in their own half, followed by a corner and a penalty, led to three first-half goals against them. They were outshot 22-10 by Leverkusen, with shots on target at 10-3. Two penalties came after fouls by central defenders, and coach Niels Frederiksen acknowledged that his side struggled to adapt to the opposition’s pace. That makes it hard to explain both 4-0 losses simply as a lack of attacking threat.
Sunderland’s two Europa League wins also came in different ways. They fielded a side close to their first choice against AZ Alkmaar, won the ball back through pressing and converted a penalty after the hosts lost possession high up the pitch in the second half. Against Tōhōens, they started with mostly reserves and went into the break 1-0 down. Regis Le Bris brought on Granit Xhaka, Enzo Le Fée, Nordi Mukiele and Reinildo Isnard Mandava in the 58th minute. Sunderland turned the game around with two goals from crosses and runs into the box. Across their last 10 competitive matches in the data centre, Sunderland have not led at half-time, and all four of their wins came by one goal.
The managers have described different approaches ahead of the match. With no Europa League points yet, Frederiksen said he would not have all 11 players defending. He also said replacing attacking players Joel Pereira and the team’s top scorer, Patrik Walemark, with more defensive options would reduce their chances of winning. Le Bris has not named his starting line-up, but said managing players’ minutes while preparing for the weekend match against Leeds United was important. That does not mean Sunderland will take the Europa League lightly. We should allow for the possibility that, as against Tōhōens, they will split playing time between starters and substitutes.
Absences could affect both teams’ attacking routes and defensive combinations. Sunderland’s Brian Brobbey will miss out. Against Manchester City, he took long passes under pressure from opposing defenders, held the ball up and scored three goals. It is unclear whether Timur Tuterov can play the same role up front. Centre-back Daniel Ballard and right-back Thomas Meunier are also out. Lech Poznań will be without forward Sayedmanesh, but Radosław Murawski returns to midfield after serving his suspension. Centre-back Wojciech Mąka is likely to miss out, so Terry Yegbe and Mateusz Skrzypczak are expected to start.
The teams have never met in a competitive match. Lech Poznań travel to Legia Warsaw in three days, while Sunderland host Leeds United. The UK Met Office forecast for Poznań on October 22 gives a high chance of rain in the morning, falling considerably before kick-off, with temperatures of 8 to 9 degrees during the match. It is hard to tell before the game how much the morning rain will affect the pitch.
2. Match-up analysis
When Lech Poznań have the ball, the space between Sunderland’s centre-backs and behind their defensive line is worth watching. Frederiksen’s side play a 4-2-3-1, with an attacking midfielder between the opposition’s midfield and defence, linking up with the wide players and Ishak. Early against Crystal Palace, Walemark’s forward run and Murawski’s through ball each led to an Ishak shot. Murawski is back for this match, and Pablo Rodríguez is expected to play as the attacking midfielder after recording two goals and three assists against Korona Kielce.
If Sunderland hold their usual high defensive line, those passes could find space. Kevin Danso and Luke O’Nien could form the centre-back pairing in Ballard’s absence, with available option Omar Alderete also in contention. The response will depend on the combination Sunderland use. If Danso wins his duels with Ishak, Lech may struggle to build attacks through the middle. If Ishak can hold the ball up or get in behind, Rodríguez and Walemark will have time to join the next attack. Lech have yet to score in the Europa League, so turning a through ball into a chance would still leave the separate challenge of finishing it.
On the right, Walemark and Pereira push forward together. Overloading Sunderland’s left side is one route to goal for Lech. At the same time, if Pereira loses the ball after advancing, Sunderland’s left-sided player can run into the space behind him. Sunderland look to break quickly after winning possession. Without Brobbey, though, they lose some of the option to send a long pass forward, hold the ball up and wait for the second line to arrive. Carrying the ball down the flank and delivering crosses into the box will matter more.
Lech will not shut down Sunderland’s attacks just by keeping the ball for long spells. Against Crystal Palace, a throw-in in Lech’s own half led to the opening goal, and they were also criticised for repeating slow central passes under pressure. If Sunderland win the ball in similar areas, they can attack before Lech’s defence gets set. The view that Sunderland press less intensely than Crystal Palace or Leverkusen comes from Lech’s camp. Lech may find it easier to play forward than in their previous two matches, but we cannot assume the mistakes will disappear.
Sunderland may also look to attack through crosses and set pieces. Against Tōhōens, a cross from substitute Mukiele found Jules Ahoka, who headed in. That showed Sunderland can score without Brobbey if they deliver from wide areas and get a second-line runner into the box. Lech conceded from a Crystal Palace corner, while Yegbe and Skrzypczak were each involved in a foul that led to a penalty against Leverkusen. If the pair start in central defence again, they will need to make good decisions when dealing with the ball and opposing players in the box as Sunderland build attacks from the flanks. Sunderland will also need to watch Lech’s corners without Ballard, who usually handles aerial defending.
The flow of the game will depend on Sunderland’s starting line-up. If Xhaka, Le Fée and Mukiele are among those left on the bench, Lech can test Sunderland’s defence with their main attackers from the start. If Le Bris brings on several first-choice players in the second half, as he did against Tōhōens, Sunderland could then create more chances through crosses and deliveries into the box. If Lech take the lead and keep attacking, as Frederiksen says they will, they can look for another goal, but the space behind their advanced full-backs will give Sunderland openings. If Sunderland start with a side close to their first choice, the expectation that Lech will dominate the ball and create the first chances becomes less convincing.
3. Prediction and conclusion
Our predicted score is Lech Poznań 2-2 Sunderland. We expect Lech to target Sunderland early with through balls from Murawski and Rodríguez, plus attacks down the right through Walemark and Pereira, and take the lead. Sunderland are likely to respond with crosses and set pieces after bringing on first-choice players in the second half. If Lech keep attacking, both teams should get further chances, but we do not expect either side to hold their advantage through the period when the other grows stronger.
The market favours Sunderland on the basis of the teams’ league levels and their results in the first two Europa League matches. Lech’s mistakes in Europe and Sunderland’s impact from the bench support that view. Still, if Sunderland manage their players’ minutes, their strength may vary over the 90 minutes. Murawski returns for Lech, Sunderland must defend through balls without Ballard, and Brobbey’s ability to hold up the ball is missing from their counterattacks. Given those factors, Lech taking the lead and Sunderland coming back in the second half looks more likely to us than a Sunderland win.
This prediction depends heavily on Sunderland starting some of their first-choice players on the bench. If Xhaka and Le Fée start, and Lech concede first through an error in their own half like the one against Crystal Palace, Sunderland could lead from early on and exploit the space behind Lech as they push forward.
