This match looks like a possession side against a team that will sit deep. Panathinaikos creates a lot and concedes very little, while Kairat has been out-shot in every European game where we have shot data. The question is conversion, not creation.
Panathinaikos has won nine of its last ten, conceded about half a goal per game and kept five clean sheets in that run. In its last two games with stats it held about two thirds of the ball and produced far more quality chances than it allowed, though against weaker opposition. Against Borac it created plenty and still only won by one goal, so finishing has been uneven.
Kairat's European record is thin: a draw at Riga with only 36% of the ball and fewer shots, and two 0-3 losses to Anderlecht. Its domestic form is better, but that league is weaker. Its routes to a goal are counters, set-pieces and penalties.
The lineups are not out. Kairat's forward and two Panathinaikos players are only listed as doubtful, so I give those flags little weight. Panathinaikos has cover at the back and up front, while Kairat's attack is thinner if its forward is missing.
I expect Panathinaikos to control the ball, Kairat to defend in a mid or low block, and an away goal in the first hour to force Kairat to open up, creating space for a second. That's why I'm siding with Panathinaikos to win by a clear margin.
