[26-27 UEL Europa League] AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan preview and analysis Kick-off: 19:00 UTC on 22 October
AFC Bournemouth and AC Milan meet at Vitality Stadium at 19:00 UTC on 22 October for Matchday 3 of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Bournemouth have won both of their first European matches, while Milan recovered from an opening defeat to pick up points. This is their first competitive meeting. Bournemouth’s early press and Milan’s response after the break look set to shape the match.
1. Match overview and team form
AFC Bournemouth beat Real Sociedad 2-1 away and Sturm Graz 3-0 at home to collect six points. AC Milan lost 2-0 at home to SL Benfica, then bounced back with a 4-0 win away to Salzburg for three points. A Bournemouth win would give the club three straight victories in its first European campaign, while a Milan win would cut the gap opened by its first-match defeat. The teams met in a friendly at the same ground in 2016, but the managers and squads have since changed, so that result offers little insight into this match.
This season Europa League: AFC Bournemouth, 2 wins, 5 goals scored, 1 conceded / AC Milan, 1 win, 1 loss, 4 goals scored, 2 conceded Domestic league: AFC Bournemouth, 1 win, 3 draws, 3 losses in 7 matches / AC Milan, 4 wins, 3 draws in 7 matches All competitions: AFC Bournemouth, 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses in 10 matches / AC Milan, 5 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss in 9 matches
Their European and domestic form point in opposite directions. Bournemouth took just three points from their first six Premier League games before beating Sunderland 2-0 for their first league win. Milan, meanwhile, went unbeaten in their first seven Serie A matches. Neither set of results settles this matchup. Real Sociedad conceded after Bournemouth used a back five for the first time, while Sturm Graz’s goalkeeper made a mistake before Bournemouth’s third goal. Milan lost to Benfica after rotating heavily, then won big against Salzburg with a different starting lineup.
Bournemouth’s recent progress is clearer in how they have managed games than in the Sunderland win alone. They led in each of their first four matches of the season but failed to win any of them. Away to Newcastle United, they went 2-0 up in the first half, quickly conceded once, then let in an 88th-minute equaliser. At Real Sociedad, they scored twice through first-half turnovers and quick transitions, but could not maintain their press in the opposition half after the break. Against Liverpool at home, they had the edge in midfield duels and second balls during the opening 20 to 25 minutes, but failed to score and lost 1-0. Their two straight wins have helped restore confidence, though turning an early advantage into a win against a strong opponent remains a challenge.
AC Milan’s attack has delivered better results since Ruben Amorim took charge. They have scored 18 goals in nine competitive matches this season, and Alphadjo Cissè scored a hat-trick away to Salzburg. Still, Milan’s unbeaten away record does not mean they have consistently dominated opponents. They trailed Lazio 2-0 at half-time before fighting back, and Sassuolo equalised just five minutes after Milan took the lead. Against Atalanta, Milan went 3-0 up but conceded twice before Mike Maignan’s late save and a change in defensive shape helped preserve a 3-2 win. Milan can find a way to get results in the second half, but they have also allowed opponents back into games after taking the lead.
Both teams played league matches on 18 October local time. Three days after this game, they each have a league away match, against Manchester United and Udinese respectively. That makes the starting lineups and substitutions important. Amorim has rotated several players in European matches. Bournemouth manager Marco Rose made some changes against Sturm Graz, but used the same starting XI as the previous league match against Real Sociedad. The key question is whether Bournemouth start in the 4-2-3-1 they have mainly used in the league or the 4-4-2 they have used in Europe.
Team news AFC Bournemouth: Unavailable, Alex Scott and Eli Junior Kroupi. Potential impact, midfield duels and transition passing, plus attacking options off the bench. AC Milan: Unavailable, Gonçalo Ramos, Samuel Chukwueze and Matteo Gabbia. Potential impact, options up front and on the right wing, plus the back-three setup.
Scott’s absence matters most for Bournemouth. Against Real Sociedad, he won the ball and quickly switched play to set up Rayan’s goal. Against Liverpool, he shared the midfield battle with Tyler Adams. Ryan Christie or Lewis Cook is expected to line up beside Adams this time. Christie offers a goal threat, while Cook is strong at playing forward passes, but one player may struggle to cover both the duels and switches Scott provided. Kroupi is not on UEFA’s registered squad list, which also reduces Bournemouth’s options for a forward substitution.
With Ramos and Chukwueze out, Francesco Camarda and Omari Giraud-Hutchinson are likely to have bigger roles for Milan. Camarda has no goals in three appearances totalling 73 minutes this season. Milan’s expected starting lineup was already close to the one that beat Salzburg 4-0 before news of Ramos’s absence, though Ramos scored as a substitute in that match, so Milan will have one fewer forward option off the bench. If Christian Pulisic and Luka Modrić start on the bench as expected, Milan will still have players who can change the attack later in the game.
Rain and strong gusts are also forecast around kick-off. Open-Meteo’s forecast on 22 October put the chance of rain at 86% around kick-off, with a higher chance later in the second half. Wind could affect Bournemouth’s long passes and Milan’s crosses. The ball’s flight and the accuracy of passes out from the back may change depending on the actual rainfall and wind speed, so the weather does not clearly favour either side.
2. Matchup analysis
Bournemouth will want to start quickly with direct passes into Evanilson and a fight for the second ball around him. If Evanilson can hold the ball up against a defender, Tavernier and Rayan can move into the box. If Bournemouth lose possession, they can press again from close range. For the opener against Sunderland, Evanilson held off two defenders and set up Tavernier’s header. At Real Sociedad, Bournemouth won the ball high up the pitch and sent it behind the far-side defender to score. If they can force several duels while Milan build from the back, Bournemouth’s attack may draw its strength from where they win the ball rather than how long they keep possession.
Milan have ways to get around that press. Mike Maignan can go long to bypass the first wave, or Ruben Loftus-Cheek can carry the ball forward through midfield and attack the space Bournemouth leave behind when they push up. With Scott missing, Adams and his midfield partner will need to stop Cissè and Loftus-Cheek from driving forward. Against Chelsea, Bournemouth struggled to deal with Cole Palmer’s central runs without Scott. One match does not prove the same will happen here, but stopping opponents in midfield after they break the press is a clear task.
The contest between Bournemouth’s left and Milan’s right offers the home side a specific route to goal. Tavernier starts wide, then moves into the box and towards the far post. He is Bournemouth’s top scorer this season with four goals. With Gabbia and Chukwueze unavailable, Giraud-Hutchinson and Fikayo Tomori are expected to deal with those runs. Milan conceded twice against Benfica after losing track of players cutting inside from wide areas. If Giraud-Hutchinson follows Tavernier inside, he will need to cover Adam Truffert’s overlapping runs. If he stays wide, Tomori may have to track Tavernier’s movement. How Milan’s defenders and midfielders share those responsibilities will matter.
In the middle, the decision over who steps out to track Evanilson could shape the game. If a Milan centre-back follows him as he drops to receive the ball, Bournemouth’s attacking midfielders can run into the space behind. If the defender holds position, Evanilson has time to link play. Milan’s central midfielders could also step in to stop him, leaving the back three to watch Tavernier and Rayan. For Bournemouth to receive the ball in good positions early on, Evanilson’s link-up play and the movement around him need to work together.
Milan’s attack down the left will test Bournemouth’s right side. Against Salzburg, Adrien Rabiot played the ball down the left for Davide Bartesaghi to advance and link up centrally, where Cissè finished. If Bournemouth right-back Adam Smith joins the press and pushes forward, Bartesaghi may find space behind him. Rabiot also moves close to the front line when Milan attack and drops into midfield when they defend. If he gets into the box in the second half as Bournemouth’s press fades, Adams and the centre-backs will need to share the job of tracking his runs.
The choice of centre-forward also matters when assessing Milan’s attacking threat after the break. After the Benfica defeat, Amorim said his attacking midfielders struggled to find space to receive the ball because there was no one running in behind. If Camarda starts as expected, watch how much his runs beyond the defence push Bournemouth’s defenders back. Cissè could also lead the line. Either way, Milan should not be expected to reproduce the four goals from Salzburg before the lineup is confirmed. The opponent is different, and Ramos, who scored off the bench in that match, is unavailable this time.
Milan may have the edge when the substitutes come on. Amorim brought Modrić on at half-time against Sassuolo, and Modrić assisted Rabiot’s opener. Milan also created more chances after making changes at half-time against Benfica. Bournemouth have also made several changes together to recover their press late against Liverpool, and Rayan scored as a substitute against Sturm Graz. But they could not regain their first-half pressing intensity after substitutions against Real Sociedad. If Milan reach half-time without conceding, their changes could have a greater influence after the break, though Bournemouth may also find a way to raise the pressing intensity again.
3. Final prediction and conclusion
Our predicted score is 1-1. Bournemouth are likely to disrupt Milan’s build-up with their first-half press and score first through Tavernier’s inside runs or Evanilson’s link-up play. Milan can target the midfield without Scott and look for an equaliser after the break through Rabiot’s forward runs and their substitutes. Bournemouth have lost leads when their pressing intensity dropped, while Ramos’s absence leaves Milan with fewer options to score again up front after an equaliser. If the forecast rain and gusts arrive, they could also reduce the accuracy of both teams’ long passes and crosses.
The market has moved to rate Bournemouth more highly, with their home advantage and two straight European wins in view, along with Milan’s injury news. But Bournemouth’s recent wins involved an opponent going down to ten men and a defensive error, while Milan’s expected starting lineup was already close to the team that beat Salzburg before the injury news. We cannot identify the cause of the odds movement from the available information. Bournemouth taking an early lead and holding it until the end are separate challenges.
This forecast depends on the expectation that Milan can bring on Pulisic and Modrić in the second half. If either is not on the bench or cannot play, Milan’s route to an equaliser weakens. If Bournemouth take the lead inside the first 30 minutes and win the ball again in Milan’s half, a home win by more than one goal becomes more likely than a 1-1 exchange.
