[26-27 UEL UEFA Europa League] OFI Crete vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen preview and analysis Kick-off: October 22, 16:45 UTC
OFI Crete and Bayer 04 Leverkusen meet at the Pankritio Stadium in Heraklion, Greece, for Matchday 3 of the UEFA Europa League league phase. OFI Crete will look to add to the points they earned at home against Hoffenheim, while Bayer 04 Leverkusen, with two wins from two, aim for an away victory as they continue their Bundesliga title challenge. The key factors are Leverkusen’s crosses and set pieces, and how OFI Crete defend their box without their first-choice goalkeeper.
1. Match overview and team form
OFI Crete qualified for the Europa League proper after beating PAOK 3-2 after extra time in last season’s Greek Cup final. They opened the league phase with a 2-0 home win over Hoffenheim, then lost 2-1 away to Rennes. Sitting on 3 points, coach Christos Kontis believes 6-7 points will be needed to reach the next round. He said a draw or a win would both mean a lot to the team (Nova Sports, October 21). That makes even a point at home worth targeting.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen have scored 6 goals and conceded none in their first two Europa League games, leaving them second on 6 points. In the Bundesliga, they are fourth, one point behind leaders Bayern. Both teams played their previous match on October 18, so they have had the same number of days to rest, but Leverkusen face a busier schedule after this game. They travel to Hoffenheim on October 25, then have a DFB-Pokal match on the 29th and a league game against Stuttgart on the 31st. OFI Crete host PAOK on October 25.
Europa League after two games: OFI Crete, 3 points, 3 goals scored and 2 conceded; Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 6 points, 6 goals scored and none conceded Recent competitive form: OFI Crete are winless in 4 games and have lost their last 3; Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 5 in a row All competitions this season, data centre: OFI Crete, 3 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in 7 games, 13 goals scored and 11 conceded; Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 7 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 9 games, 26 goals scored and 9 conceded
OFI Crete’s last 3 defeats all came away from home. They conceded 3 goals from set pieces against AEK Athens, while against Rennes they created little after taking the lead and conceded in the 76th and 90th minutes. They made 5 changes to the starting XI for the 4-3 defeat to Kalamata, and first-choice goalkeeper Nikolaos Christogeorgos was replaced at half-time with an injury. The results have been poor, but the goals conceded in those 3 games came in different ways. Kontis said injuries had forced changes in defence and weakened the understanding between players (Nova Sports, October 21).
The venue and the way the goals came about matter. In the data centre’s last 10 competitive matches, OFI Crete’s 4 home games produced 3 wins and 1 draw, with 10 goals scored and 3 conceded. They beat Hoffenheim 2-0 despite having just 32% possession. The opener began with the goalkeeper’s long kick, which Kenan Kodro won. Away to Rennes, by contrast, they had 33% possession and just 2 shots. Their opener came after Nuss and Bouchalakis won the ball high up the pitch. In both games, OFI Crete made limited chances count, but they created little after scoring against Rennes and spent long spells defending.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen bounced back in the league and Europe after a 3-2 defeat away to Elversberg in their opening game. Under coach Carles Martinez, Miguel Gutiérrez’s crosses, the link-up between Ibrahim Maza and Patrik Schick, and Aleix García’s set pieces have led to goals. Still, their 5 straight wins have not all been dominant performances. They scored 4 away to Mainz but also conceded 3, and beat Freiburg 2-1 with Schick’s winner in the 76th minute. Their 4-0 Europa League win over Lech Poznań included 2 penalties.
The coaches also manage their line-ups differently. Kontis has kept his 3-4-3 in Europe and mostly picked his first-choice players, then made 5 changes for the league game against Kalamata after the trip to Rennes. Martinez has kept a fairly consistent core in the league, but has made 6 changes from the previous league match in a Europa League game. Leverkusen could rotate again, although they have limited options up front. Martin Terrier and Christian Kofane are out, while Victor Okoh Boniface is not in their Europa League squad. If Schick is rested, they have no specialist striker to fill the same role.
The biggest absence for OFI Crete is Christogeorgos. He has started all 7 of their competitive games this season, but missed the squad with a neck injury (The Athletic, October 21). He made 5 saves against Hoffenheim, and his long kick to Kenan Kodro also started their first goal. Expected replacement Klidman Lilo has played just 45 minutes this season, against Kalamata. In defence, Christos Sielis and Nikos Marinakis are also out, so the trio of Achilleas Poungouras, Dimitrios Nikolaou and Krešimir Krizmanić from the Rennes game are likely to start again. Forward Taxiarchis Fountas is in the squad, but back pain has reduced his minutes recently, leaving it unclear whether he can manage 90 minutes.
The teams’ only previous meeting came in the 1995 Intertoto Cup, when Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 1-0 at home. The players, coaches and venue are all different today. More useful reference points are how OFI Crete beat Hoffenheim at the Pankritio and how Leverkusen have attacked teams that sit deep. More than 14,000 tickets have been sold, and additional sections of the stands have been opened (Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger, October 21). Rain and strong winds are not forecast around kick-off, so conditions should allow both teams to use long balls and crosses (Open-Meteo, checked October 22).
2. Match-up analysis
We expect Bayer 04 Leverkusen to keep the ball for long spells, with OFI Crete’s wing-backs dropping back to form a five-man defensive line. OFI Crete had 32% possession against Hoffenheim and 33% against Rennes. Kontis has also said he will not change the system because of their recent goals conceded (Nova Sports, October 21). The key question is how well that defence can deal with Leverkusen’s crosses. Hoffenheim had 21 shots against OFI Crete but did not score, though only 5 were on target. Leverkusen have Schick making runs behind the defence to meet Gutiérrez’s crosses, while Maza can carry the ball into the box himself or link up with Schick.
OFI Crete’s defenders can deal with Schick centrally. The harder task will be defending the set pieces and loose balls that follow repeated crosses. According to Kontis, all 3 goals conceded against AEK Athens came from set pieces. Leverkusen scored twice from corners against Celje, and García’s delivery can pick out aerial threats such as Facundo Medina and Edmond Tapsoba. Lilo will need to handle crosses and shots inside the box, duties usually covered by the first-choice goalkeeper. His 45 minutes of playing time are too little to judge his handling, but the change in goalkeeper and back three directly affects Leverkusen’s main attacking route.
At the other end, the moment after OFI Crete win the ball will matter. Kontis said Leverkusen press man-to-man high up the pitch and leave space behind them (Documento News, October 21). For Hoffenheim’s opener, Kodro won a long ball near halfway and passed to Aitor Cantalapiedra. If Kodro wins the first duel again, Thiago Nuss and Cantalapiedra can run in behind Leverkusen’s defenders. If Gutiérrez has pushed high to cross, OFI Crete’s right wing-back Lorenzo Dickmann could also attack the space behind him.
Still, we cannot assume the Hoffenheim goal will be repeated in the same way. Christogeorgos, who sent the first long ball, is out. Lilo’s appearances do not tell us whether he can find Kodro in the same way. If Medina or Tapsoba wins the duel with Kodro, Leverkusen can attack again from a high position. And even if OFI Crete play through the press, they may have to spend much of the second half defending crosses and set pieces if they create few shots after taking the lead, as they did against Rennes.
In midfield, Maza’s movement and Andreas Bouchalakis’s positioning will be worth watching. Maza scored the equaliser against Freiburg and set up Schick’s winner. Bouchalakis moved high to win the ball in the build-up to OFI Crete’s opener against Rennes. If he tracks Maza and protects the space in front of the back three, OFI Crete may have fewer chances to win the ball high up the pitch. If he presses aggressively, though, Maza could receive the ball in front of the defence. OFI Crete need to protect the middle while they are without the ball and still create a starting point for counter-attacks.
The coaches’ choices after the first goal could affect the margin. If OFI Crete score first, Leverkusen will have to keep attacking against a settled defence. They struggled against that kind of defensive set-up at Elversberg, although that was Martinez’s league debut, before the current centre-back partnership had settled. If Leverkusen score first, OFI Crete are likely to stick with their 3-4-3 and try to respond by pushing their wing-backs forward and using their substitutes. Against Hoffenheim, substitute Borja Gonzalez Tejada delivered the corner that Georgios Kanellopoulos headed in during the 84th minute. Both players are in the squad again.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We lean towards Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Gutiérrez and Schick’s crossing game, Maza’s movement in the box and García’s corners will test an OFI Crete side with changes in goal and defence. OFI Crete still have the defensive shape and counter-attacking route that helped them beat Hoffenheim, but Christogeorgos, who made the saves and played the first long ball, is unavailable. To keep Leverkusen out as they repeatedly attack the box, the new combination will need to deal with crosses as well as the loose balls after set pieces.
Our predicted score, with the home team listed first, is 1-2 or 1-3. We see 1-2 as more likely, with Leverkusen scoring first from a cross or corner before OFI Crete pull one back through a second-half transition or a substitute’s set piece. A 1-3 is possible if Leverkusen take an early lead and keep Schick and Maza on the pitch to maintain the pressure.
The market gives considerable weight to a big away win, based on the difference in quality between the two leagues, Leverkusen’s winning run and OFI Crete’s recent away defeats. We agree that Leverkusen are more likely to win, but OFI Crete’s recent losses have all come away from home and Leverkusen travel to Hoffenheim three days later. If Martinez manages the game after taking the lead, it may be difficult to add more goals, especially with fewer forward options available through injury. OFI Crete still have a route back through a second-half set piece while maintaining their shape. Our view would change if Leverkusen keep Schick and Maza on for more than 70 minutes and continue attacking after taking the lead.
