Koda

Charlotte's preseason was not a team waiting for players to come back. It was the exact guard group that takes the floor in this match, and that group kept giving the ball away. Brooklyn's starting five is unchanged from preseason and forced turnovers in every game it played. When one side's repeated leak meets the other side's repeated method, last season's records matter less than who is actually on the court.

Both of these road teams carry an edge their hosts cannot match with the same tool. Saga have lost their size, and the possessions are leaking out on the glass every night. Utsunomiya rely on the glass and the free-throw line, while the Dolphins win the turnover battle by a wide margin in every game they play. In both games, the bigger and more repeatable window belongs to the visitors.

Two games where one side owns a mechanism the other cannot answer the same way. In Seoul, a defence that takes away the three meets an offence that lives on the three and is missing one of its late-game creators. In Chiba, a home side that has been bleeding rebounds since two import bigs went down hosts a visitor built around two bigs. Both matchups point at the same weak spot every possession.

Two opening-night games, two home sides whose edge sits in a spot the visitors have trouble covering. At Madison Square Garden the stars cancel out, and what is left is the depth behind Joel Embiid. In San Antonio, last spring's series came down to Victor Wembanyama's rim protection against Oklahoma City's outside shooting, and the summer took two of the Thunder's answers to that matchup away.

This opener is closer to even than the names suggest. Boston brings size, rebounding and a huge volume of threes, while Detroit brings a starting unit that has played together and a defence that lives on taking the ball away. Both teams give the ball away often, so the turnover battle is traded in both directions. What separates them is that Boston's top unit has barely played together, while most of its perfect preseason was built by reserves.

This Game 3 has two halves. LG has the steadier starter and KIA has the weaker one, so the early innings lean to the home side. From the sixth inning on it is a different game: KIA's back end has not given up a run in the series, while LG's bullpen is missing several of its regular late arms. The question is whether LG can build a big enough lead before its starting-pitching edge runs out.

This Badalona derby is being read through the Supercopa final, but the units behind that result have changed. Joventut's big win a month ago was built on a hot three-point night and a frontcourt that included Kraag, who is now out alongside Tomic. Barcelona lose games at the free-throw line, and Joventut is a team that rarely gets there. The match looks like a close, guard-led game where Joventut's best weapon is the glass, not the whistle.

This series has not been decided by ballparks or momentum. It has been decided by which pitchers were on the mound. Chicago won the two games its best arms covered, and Cleveland won the two games that Chicago's middle relievers had to pitch. For the deciding game, the question is which side gets to use its best pitching for the most innings.

Game 1 of this Central League first stage looks like a low-scoring starters' game at Tokyo Dome. Both Inoue and Higashi have dominated these exact lineups on very little traffic, so neither offence is at its best here. The difference sits in how each starter arrives: one is in sharp, steady form, the other comes off a heavier September and a long layoff. If the first six innings go to the steadier arm, a one-run game decided late is the most likely shape.

Illawarra's 1-4 start was not built by the roster that takes the floor in this match, but one weakness has followed every version of it: they foul far more than they draw fouls, and they lose the glass. Tasmania are a side that lives at the free-throw line and in the post. Illawarra's answer is three-point volume, and the new import Kelan Martin makes it more dangerous. This looks like a close, slow game, and the battle in the lane decides it.

Game 3 of this ALDS comes down to the middle innings. Both clubs are opening with a reliever, so the real question is who covers innings three through six. Chicago have a quick turnaround with Game 4 coming straight after, and they're holding arms back. Cleveland are facing elimination and won't hold anything back.

Neither side brings a real starter to Gocheok, and that shapes the whole match. Hanwha's Jung Woo-ju is going out for a short test of about three innings, so the league's leakiest staff has to cover most of the game from the bullpen. Kiwoom answers with Kim Sung-jin, a reliever who only moved into a starting role in late July. When both teams need this many arms, I expect runs to come from both dugouts.

Two games, two separate reasons. In Tulsa, OKC is resting six regulars for the front end of a back-to-back, while New Orleans has no game for a couple of days. In San Diego, the Brewers send out a starter who hasn't gotten past the third inning in a month, against a Padres lineup that has been getting on base all series and just hasn't cashed in.

Game 3 looks like a pitchers' duel to me. Chris Sale takes the mound on extra rest against a Dodgers lineup he completely shut down this summer, and the Braves' bats are ice cold going into it. After the off day, both bullpens can line up their best arms behind a real starter. I don't see many runs in this one.

I expect a grind in Ankara. Turk Telekom play slow, low-scoring basketball, and Roma arrive tired after a road game in Bologna and a long trip east. Neither side shoots the three well, so I don't see where a shootout would come from. The table makes Roma look like the hot team, but that's based on a single round.

Doosan arrive in Busan with their postseason spot already secured, and that changes how they treat this game. Gwak Bin starts, but his manager has framed it as his final outing before resting for the wild-card game, so there is little reason to push him deep. Lotte's recent dry spell came against the league's best pitching staff, not at home. The game turns on what happens once Gwak hands the ball over.

Milano arrive in Verona at the worst point of their week. This is their third game in about a week, with two hard EuroLeague nights behind them and a trip to Maccabi Tel Aviv right after. The rotation is set to be heavily reshuffled. Verona are rested, at home for the first time in the top flight, and have exactly the kind of quick guards that make a tired favourite work for every possession. I expect this game to be closer than the gap between the two names suggests.

This match comes down to a settled team against a team that is still being built. Udine kept their coach and their system from a solid season, and the new players are fitting into a structure that already works. Cantù have a new coach and an almost completely new roster, and so far it shows. Two games into a season, I trust the team that already knows what it is doing.

This is the Hawks' last regular-season game, and the team showing up in Sendai is not the one that won 91 games. They have already pulled several regulars and most of their late-inning bullpen to get ready for the Climax Series. On the mound, Kenta Maeda has been sharp lately, while Taiga Kamichatani is coming back from a long gap between starts. I'm siding with Rakuten in this one.

Game 2 comes down to how many innings each side can actually cover. The Dodgers hand the ball to Blake Snell, who hasn't allowed more than one run in any start since he got healthy in August. Atlanta are opening with Ray Kerr on two days' rest, a day after another bullpen game. I'm backing the gap in the middle innings, not just the Dodgers' name.