All posts · page 72

Two MLS matches with a clear structural story each. In one, the visitors are the better team on chances and the hosts are thin at the back. In the other, two porous defences meet, and goals should come from either end.

Two matches where the visitors are the side creating more, against hosts who are struggling to score or to stop conceding. In both, a level result is a real possibility, so the question is who has the better of the chances rather than who wins outright.

Napoli against Roma looks closer on the scoreboard than on the chance sheets. Roma have been the side creating more and allowing less over their last ten, while Napoli have been giving up almost as much as they make. Both teams have personnel problems, but they sit in different parts of the pitch.

Two Serie A matches where one side's structure is clearly steadier than the other's. In both, the team I back keeps the match low-risk for itself and the opponent is short of the pieces needed to hurt it.

A match between a possession-and-chances side that has not been getting the results and a low-event home side short of forwards. Villarreal create the better chances, Valencia score under a goal a game, and the question is whether the visitors turn volume into a goal.

Two home sides with the stronger ball-winning and chance-creation profile, each facing an opponent whose defensive or midfield structure is leaking right now. Neither match looks like an open contest of equals: the home team should own the territory and the visitors need a counter or a set piece to stay in it.

Two away sides that create more than the hosts they face, against home teams short of firepower.

Two matches where the side I back has the better chance numbers and the opponent has the bigger holes.

Napoli against Roma looks like a game where the visitor has the better numbers but the home side has the venue and a real chance of a draw. Roma create more and concede less over their recent matches, while Napoli's results swing on finishing and on who scores first. Den Haag against Heerenveen is a game where the season averages hide a split: Den Haag look like a different team at home than away. Both should be open, even games with chances at either end.

Two matches where the gap comes from depth and from who is actually available, not from a flashy headline. One is a home side with a long record over its opponent against a young group still finding its system. The other is an early-season game between two leaky defences, where one side's guard group is in question.

City found the box more often in the Melbourne derby, yet Victory still came away with a point. Marcondes entered at the break and supplied Nabbout's equalizer, but I wouldn't pin City's pressure on that one change. City had ten shots from inside the box to Victory's five across the match. Did the substitution alter the route in, or did it simply finish a pattern that was already there?

Both sides in this match are short in exactly the spots that decide it. Como have lost their attacking depth (Kean, Diao) and now Chalobah in defence, while our absence list has Sassuolo without Idzes, Paz, Kone, Boloca and Leysen, which hollows out the middle of their team. So I'm curious whether Como's reshuffled front line can still pull a thin Sassuolo back line apart, or whether the home side's own patched defence hands the visitors an easy route back into the game.

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