[2026 MLS] Orlando City SC vs New York City FC Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 24, 23:30 UTC
Orlando City SC host New York City FC at Inter&Co Stadium on October 25 at 8:30 a.m. Korea time. With four regular-season games left, Orlando sit seventh in the Eastern Conference and need to hold on to a direct playoff place. NYCFC are 12th, two points behind the final wild-card spot, with two other teams between them and that place, so they need a win.
1. Match overview and team form
After 30 matches Eastern Conference standings and points: Orlando City SC, 7th, 41 points / New York City FC, 12th, 34 points Wins, draws, losses: Orlando City SC 12-5-13 / New York City FC 8-10-12 Goals for and against: Orlando City SC 58-70 / New York City FC 43-41
The standings published by the Data Center on October 24 show a clear contrast between the teams. Orlando have scored the fifth-most goals in the East, but have also conceded the second-most. Only Nashville SC have conceded fewer than NYCFC's 41 goals, yet a lack of scoring has left them in 12th. Orlando are two points ahead of eighth-place FC Cincinnati and want all three at home. A draw would do little to close NYCFC's gap to the wild-card places.
Orlando's season total of 70 goals conceded does not tell the whole story of their current defending. They conceded 44 goals in the 15 matches before the World Cup break and 26 in the 15 matches after the league resumed, going 8-3-4 in that second stretch. They also scored 23 goals before the break and 35 afterward. Antoine Griezmann, who joined from Atlético Madrid, has recorded 12 goals and seven assists in 14 league appearances (Orlando City SC, October 19). Orlando conceded 18 fewer goals and scored 12 more after the restart, though they still allowed 1.73 goals per game. Their current strength is their scoring, rather than defensive solidity.
NYCFC have gone in the opposite direction. They scored 25 goals in their first 15 matches and only 18 in the next 15. Their goals conceded barely changed, from 21 to 20. They have won just once in their last 13 regular-season games (New York Post, October 22). Over the last 10 matches, Orlando are 5-2-3 with 25 goals scored, while NYCFC are 1-5-4 with nine goals. NYCFC have faced plenty of upper-table opponents in that run and have played several close games, so their winless spell alone does not mean their performances have fallen apart.
The teams have also scored in different ways lately. Orlando scored 10 goals in their last three league games. Short passing combinations between Griezmann and Martín Ojeda, a Griezmann free kick, an interception of an opponent's pass and a finish by a substitute attacker all led to goals. But Orlando's expected goals were 6.42 and their expected goals against were 8.48 across those three games. The 2-1-0 run came despite giving up plenty of chances, thanks to their forwards' finishing and Maxime Crépeau's saves. NYCFC have scored only four goals from 6.59 expected goals over their last five matches. Agustin Ojeda's attacks down the right and Nicolás Fernández's set pieces have offered identifiable routes to goal, but NYCFC have not turned them into goals consistently.
Team Orlando City SC: Key absences and fitness doubts: Robin Jansson is out for the season; Griffin Dorsey and others are uncertain. Likely impact: fewer options for changes in defense. New York City FC: Key absences and fitness doubts: Maxi Moralez, Keaton Parks and Kai Trewin are out. Likely impact: Fernández will carry more of the midfield's attacking link-up.
Under interim coach Martín Perelman, Orlando usually line up in a 4-4-2. Griezmann drops off from the front two to link the attack, and when left-back Iván Angulo pushes forward, a midfielder covers behind him. David Brekalo and Iago are expected to start in central defense with Jansson unavailable (The Mane Land, October 22). NYCFC coach Pascal Jansen uses a possession-based 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3. Alonso Martínez has started again since returning from injury, but the midfield roles handled by Moralez, Parks and Trewin remain unfilled.
NYCFC's 5-0 win in the March meeting tells us little about the teams heading into this match. Orlando goalkeeper Maxime Crépeau was sent off in the 16th minute, and the NYCFC players who scored or assisted on all five goals, Maxi Moralez, Keaton Parks and Kai Trewin, are all out this time. Orlando have also changed coaches since then and added Antoine Griezmann. The fact that the last four meetings at Orlando's home ground were all decided by one goal or fewer does not mean the same pattern will hold with the current squads.
Both teams played their last match on October 18 Korea time and have had a week off. They are both due to play again on October 29. It is Orlando's penultimate home game of the regular season, while NYCFC need to keep chasing a wild-card place on the road. What matters more than the schedule is which players each team brings on in the second half as they pursue points.
2. Matchup analysis
The most direct battle should come down Orlando's left and NYCFC's right. NYCFC's Agustin Ojeda has started all 30 matches this season and recorded 10 assists (Data Center). Against Real Salt Lake, he got onto a forward pass from Tayvon Gray, drove to the byline and cut the ball back. He also helped create a goal with a cross against Atlanta United. If the ball reaches Ojeda before Angulo can recover after joining the attack, Orlando will have to stop his crosses from that side. This is a tactical projection based on the teams' shape, not a result already established in a direct Angulo-Ojeda matchup.
Orlando can also attack down that flank in the opposite direction. If NYCFC lose the ball with Gray pushed forward, Angulo and Martín Ojeda can run into the space behind him. Among Orlando's recent goals were one that started with Griezmann intercepting a pass in the opposition back line and another from a counterattack launched immediately after a Crépeau save. How safely NYCFC advance while in possession, and whether Gray has time to recover when they lose the ball, could shape this flank battle.
In the middle, watch for the moments when Griezmann drops deep to receive the ball. Against D.C. United, he took a forward pass from Daryl Dike, exchanged quick passes with Martín Ojeda and scored. This attack will be harder to build if NYCFC's Andrés Perea and Aiden O'Neill deny Griezmann time to turn in front of the center-backs. But if Perea has pushed into the box to attack a cross or set piece when NYCFC lose possession, O'Neill may have to stop the first pass toward Griezmann by himself. The more players NYCFC commit forward, the more important that response becomes.
Crosses and set pieces are NYCFC's clearest routes to testing Orlando's defense. Their equalizer against LAFC, when Perea headed in a corner from Fernández, was a good example. Orlando conceded eight corners against D.C. United and 11 against Columbus Crew. Against D.C. United, Brekalo allowed the player he was marking several free headers (The Mane Land, October 19). If NYCFC keep delivering crosses from the right and win corners, Perea and the returning Alonso Martínez will test Orlando in the box.
Orlando can score from set pieces too. Griezmann scored directly from a free kick against Columbus Crew, and a short free kick led to a goal against Philadelphia Union. NYCFC have allowed just 1.31 expected goals per game over their last five matches, keeping chances down when they are set defensively. If they limit the connection between Griezmann and Martín Ojeda, free kicks and mistakes in the opposition's buildup become more important chances for Orlando. Orlando's recent run of high-scoring games alone is not enough to conclude they will score several goals against NYCFC in a close game.
The first goal would shape how each team manages the second half. NYCFC have 0 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in the 16 matches this season in which they conceded first (The Mane Land, October 23). If Orlando go ahead, NYCFC will have to send more players forward, but they are short of midfielders who can provide the final pass with those absences. Perelman can call on attacking substitutes such as Dike, Harvey Sarajian, Marco Pasalic and Justin Ellis, who have scored or assisted after coming off the bench. If they enter while NYCFC push their fullbacks forward in pursuit, Orlando will have a route to a second goal.
If NYCFC score first, the game could take a different shape. Orlando may push Angulo higher, leaving Agustin Ojeda space to attack behind him, while Fernández's delivery could create another chance. NYCFC let a first-half lead slip in a loss to Chicago Fire and twice went ahead before drawing with Atlanta United. Orlando have also twice lost leads against Columbus Crew and conceded a 90th-minute equalizer against Toronto FC. Whichever team scores first, we should also watch how the other side handles the opponent's wide attacks and set pieces after taking the lead.
3. Final verdict and conclusion
The market gives Orlando a narrow edge, pointing to their home form, Griezmann's scoring and NYCFC's recent struggles. We are broadly in line with that view on the likely winner. The difference is the margin and total goals. NYCFC's low number of goals conceded and their tendency to draw suggest a close game, but neither team can be satisfied with a draw here. If both keep pushing for a win in the second half, Orlando have more attacking substitutes who have contributed goals.
Our score prediction is Orlando City SC 3-1 or 4-2 New York City FC. NYCFC can score through Agustin Ojeda's attacks down the right or a Fernández set piece. Orlando are more likely to take the lead or level the match through the link-up between Griezmann and Martín Ojeda, Griezmann's delivery, or forward runs immediately after winning the ball. If NYCFC keep committing players forward in search of a win, Dike, Ellis and Pasalic could attack the space behind their advanced defenders in the second half.
This forecast rests on Orlando's ability to get the ball to Griezmann against NYCFC's defense, NYCFC's record of failing to win after conceding first, and the difference in attacking options available to the two coaches in the second half. If NYCFC maintain their defensive shape, keep possession without mistakes at the back and do so until the end, they will leave less space for Orlando's transitions and attacking substitutes. That could make this a tighter, lower-scoring game than we expect.
