[2026 MLS] San Diego FC vs Seattle Sounders FC Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 25, 02:30 UTC
San Diego FC host Seattle Sounders FC at Snapdragon Stadium at 02:30 UTC on October 25. It is the first of the final four matches of the MLS regular season. San Diego FC need points to keep their playoff hopes alive, while Seattle Sounders FC have a chance to clinch a place and improve their position.
1. Match overview and team form
San Diego FC are 12th in the Western Conference with 34 points, five points off the playoff line. Some estimates suggest they will need at least 10 points from their remaining four games. A defeat here would not eliminate them, but a draw would do little to ease the pressure on the rest of their schedule. Seattle Sounders FC are seventh in the West with 42 points and could clinch a playoff place this round with a win and the right results elsewhere. Both teams last played on October 18, and each has another match within four to five days of this one.
MLS regular-season record this year, after 30 matches: San Diego FC: 8 wins, 10 draws, 12 losses Seattle Sounders FC: 11 wins, 9 draws, 10 losses Goals scored and conceded: San Diego FC 53 and 56; Seattle Sounders FC 39 and 37 Western Conference position and points: San Diego FC, 12th, 34 points; Seattle Sounders FC, seventh, 42 points
According to the standings published by the Data Center on October 23, San Diego FC have scored 14 more goals than Seattle Sounders FC and conceded 19 more. They average 58.6% possession, the highest in the league, and Anders Dreyer leads the attack with 13 goals and 12 assists. Marcus Ingvartsen has also scored 12 times. Yet San Diego FC have made relatively few touches in the box given how often they move the ball into the opposition half. More possession alone does not mean more chances in front of goal.
San Diego FC's last win came against LA Galaxy on August 30. They have since gone eight matches without a win, drawing four and losing four, but have scored 13 goals in that run. Their drought stems from conceding 23 times rather than a stalled attack. They scored first in three of their last five matches but did not win any of them. Against Austin FC, they let a 3-0 lead become a 3-3 draw. Against Houston Dynamo, they lost a 2-0 lead by the 37th minute after going ahead in the 22nd. Coach Mikey Varas has kept the possession-based attack while changing the defensive setup and goalkeeper, but San Diego FC have still conceded 11 goals in their last three home matches. The defensive stability they showed during a three-game home winning streak this summer has been hard to reproduce at home lately.
Seattle Sounders FC went through an eight-match winless run in the summer, followed by five straight draws, then won four in a row to extend their unbeaten run to nine matches through the game against New England Revolution. That upturn coincided with players returning from lengthy injury layoffs and new arrivals joining the squad. They have won one, drawn three and lost five of their last nine away matches, but looking only at the five away games since August 23 gives a record of one win, three draws and one loss. That is why their season-long away record does not tell the whole story of the team now. Still, they scored only once across their last two matches, against FC Dallas and CF Montréal, after that four-game winning streak. Coach Brian Schmetzer pointed to the team's passing and off-ball movement after the draw with Montréal.
Seattle's left side of defence is the main selection question. Full-back Nouhou Tolo, who started each of the last five matches, is not expected to play because of a hand injury. Centre-back Yeimar Gómez Andrade picked up a hamstring injury in training and is a doubt. Jackson Ragen and Stuart Hawkins are options in central defence, but Seattle have not announced who will replace Nouhou at left-back. For San Diego FC, defender Osvald Soe is expected to miss out, while the fitness of full-back Kieran Sargeant is also a factor. Ingvartsen has started the last two matches on the bench. Whether Cédric Bakambu continues to start will determine who leads the early runs in behind.
The teams drew 1-1 when they met in May, with Seattle Sounders FC at home. Ingvartsen ran in behind Seattle's defensive line to put San Diego FC ahead, and Seattle equalised from an Albert Rusnák corner. San Diego FC then packed the area in front of their box after scoring. With three points so important in this home match, we cannot assume they will take the same approach this time.
2. Matchup analysis
One key theme will be San Diego FC having the ball and targeting Seattle Sounders FC's left side of defence. Varas's team shifts positions and overloads one flank before switching play to the other side. Dreyer moves between the wing, the half-spaces and the gaps between the lines to receive the ball. In May, even with Nouhou playing, Ingvartsen got ahead of him and scored after receiving a diagonal pass from Onni Valakari. With Nouhou expected to miss out this time, Seattle will need to rework the roles between their left-back and centre-back.
Seattle can ease that pressure by blocking passing lanes in midfield before San Diego switch the ball to the other side. If Cristian Roldan and Hassani Dotson cut off the central connections, the new left-back will be less likely to face Dreyer or a runner one-on-one. If San Diego get through midfield and switch play quickly, Seattle's defenders will have to hand off moving attackers between them. If Ingvartsen starts, Seattle must watch for runs in behind from the opening minutes. Bakambu offers another route, receiving the ball in the box and winning fouls.
The other key moment comes when San Diego lose possession. They have conceded on quick attacks even in matches where they have dominated the ball. Against Houston Dynamo, a counterattack led to the first goal against them in the 24th minute, when San Diego were leading 2-0. Seattle can win the ball and play an early pass through Rusnák, with Jordan Morris, Paul Arriola and Dejan Joveljić driving forward. A counter involving Rusnák and Arriola also led to Joveljić's goal away to New England Revolution. Seattle's struggle to score in their last two possession-heavy matches may not carry over to this game, where San Diego are likely to have more of the ball.
To stop those attacks, Jeppe Tverskov or Aníbal Godoy need to cut out the pass to Rusnák as soon as San Diego lose possession, while Manu Duah tracks Morris's runs. Duah's recovery runs matter when the full-backs have pushed forward. Even if San Diego score first, that defensive task remains. They have recently struggled to protect leads, and they need three points here. Seattle's Cristian Roldan has also acknowledged that committing more players forward leaves fewer to defend when San Diego win the ball and break.
Set pieces give Seattle a scoring route regardless of possession. Rusnák's corner produced the equaliser in May, and San Diego conceded a header from a corner against New York Red Bulls recently. San Diego can also win corners in the attacking half. Seattle conceded against FC Dallas after failing to deal with a loose ball following a corner, and Yeimar's availability remains uncertain. Both teams will need to defend set pieces, whatever the balance of possession in open play.
The coaches' choices after the first goal will matter. San Diego have had help from their substitutes when chasing a goal. Gabriel Pirani came off the bench to equalise in the 86th minute against Houston Dynamo. Schmetzer has also found goals through his halftime and second-half substitutions. Sebastian Gomez came on at halftime against Sporting Kansas City and Montréal and scored equalising goals in both matches. Seattle have gone on to win once and draw three times in their last four matches after trailing at halftime. Those late attacking changes have played a part. So an opening goal for either team would not shut off the other side's scoring routes.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We expect a draw with both teams scoring. Our score predictions are 2-2 or 3-3. San Diego FC may take the lead by keeping the ball and attacking Seattle's makeshift left side, but could concede an equaliser after losing possession, either through a transition led by Rusnák or from one of his corners. If Seattle score first, we expect San Diego to bring on attackers and keep probing down the flank, testing that same left side again.
Both teams' scoring routes and their struggles to manage leads shape our prediction. San Diego scored first in three of their last five matches but failed to win any of them, while Seattle have avoided defeat in their last four matches after going into halftime behind. Seattle's left side, with Nouhou expected to miss out, is an area San Diego can keep targeting. San Diego's need for three points also leaves open the chance that they push their full-backs forward after taking the lead.
The overseas markets give the home side a slight edge, citing San Diego FC's home advantage and attacking record. We agree they have the firepower, but are less convinced they can protect a lead. Their recent failures to deal with transitions after going ahead line up with one of Seattle's main ways of scoring. That said, if Seattle score first and then block San Diego's switches of play in midfield while protecting the space in front of their box, the goal exchange and draw we expect may not come about.
