Napoli against Roma looks closer on the scoreboard than on the chance sheets. Roma have been the side creating more and allowing less over their last ten, while Napoli have been giving up almost as much as they make. Both teams have personnel problems, but they sit in different parts of the pitch.
Over the last ten matches Roma average about 2.1 expected goals for and 1.1 against, with 17.5 shots a game. Napoli sit around 1.6 for and 1.7 against. Some of Roma's volume came against weaker opposition, so I shrink the gap, but it still points the same way.
Napoli are short of two defenders and two wide attackers, which matters for a team that already concedes chances. Roma lose a goalkeeper and a creator, which takes some edge off, but the gap in what each side manufactures survives it. The supplier feed for absences is a single source, so I treat it as a soft input.
I expect Roma to hold more of the ball while Napoli look for quick transitions. The turning point is whether Napoli's reshuffled centre-backs get through the first half hour. A Roma goal first stretches them; a Napoli goal from a counter or set piece pushes the game toward a level result, which is the real danger here.
That's why I'm siding with Roma to win away.
