Napoli against Roma looks like a game where the visitor has the better numbers but the home side has the venue and a real chance of a draw. Roma create more and concede less over their recent matches, while Napoli's results swing on finishing and on who scores first. Den Haag against Heerenveen is a game where the season averages hide a split: Den Haag look like a different team at home than away. Both should be open, even games with chances at either end.
Napoli and Roma: over the last ten matches Roma average about 17 shots and roughly two expected goals for, against about one conceded, while Napoli sit near 1.6 for and 1.7 against. Roma are third and unbeaten in the league with 16 goals scored and 3 conceded in seven games. Napoli are without two forwards, Neres and Alisson Santos, and their first-choice centre-back Buongiorno has been missing for several games. Roma have their own gaps, with Svilar, Bah and Kone out, but those have been there for a while and Roma still won 4-0 and 2-0 without them. Napoli can hurt Roma at home through transitions and set plays, and a draw is a real result, but Roma's volume gives them the better chance of the decisive goal. That is why I'm siding with Roma away, with a draw returning the stake.
Den Haag: they are 16th, so the table says Heerenveen, but the match rows say otherwise at home. Against PSV they won 2-1 with the better chances, and against Cambuur they dominated the expected goals. The ugly performances, like the pinned-back games at Telstar and Twente, were all away. Heerenveen have leaked on the road, conceding 17 in ten away games over their last twenty matches. Den Haag's striker Reischl has been out for two games already and they still scored twice in each, so the loss is already absorbed. I'm siding with Den Haag at home not to lose this one.
