Two Serie A matches where one side's structure is clearly steadier than the other's. In both, the team I back keeps the match low-risk for itself and the opponent is short of the pieces needed to hurt it.
Lazio against Parma: Lazio sit second with the best defence in the league, five clean sheets in their last ten, while Parma are near the bottom with four goals scored in seven. Parma are also without both forwards, Elphege and Almqvist, so their route to a goal is a set piece or a counter. Lazio's replacement goalkeeper and the absence of Gudmundsson were already absorbed in two comfortable wins. Lazio's home games have been more open, with several draws, but they should control the ball against a deep block and need only one goal from a side that concedes plenty away. I'm siding with Lazio.
Napoli against Roma: Roma come in with strong recent form and better chance quality, while Napoli have been leaking goals and are missing Buongiorno for a fourth straight game plus another defender. Roma have a backup goalkeeper and no Dybala, which keeps a Napoli goal on the table, and the history between these sides is full of tight draws. Roma's shot volume against a patched Napoli back line is the deciding matchup, so I'm siding with Roma not to lose this one.
