A match between a possession-and-chances side that has not been getting the results and a low-event home side short of forwards. Villarreal create the better chances, Valencia score under a goal a game, and the question is whether the visitors turn volume into a goal.
Villarreal's expected goals over their last ten sit well above Valencia's, around 1.9 for against 1.1, and they hold about 58 percent of the ball. Their results lag their chances: a goalless draw against Elche despite twenty shots, and an open loss at Liverpool in midweek. Valencia, meanwhile, will again be without Lopez, Sadiq and Copete, the same set that missed their goalless draw with Bilbao, so that sample is a fair picture of this attack. Hugo Duro and Otorbi carry the load.
Villarreal's own absences matter less: Romero is out at centre-back but Navarro and Veiga cover, and Foulquier's absence on the Valencia right is a rotation issue rather than a hole. The match should flow with Villarreal on the ball and Valencia compact, looking for transitions. A first Villarreal goal forces Valencia to come out, and that is where the visitors' quality shows. That is why I'm siding with Villarreal to win away.
