Two matches where the side I back has the better chance numbers and the opponent has the bigger holes.
Chelsea host Tottenham. Spurs arrive with their suspended midfield anchor, two forwards and two progressing midfielders missing, which strips out the ball progression De Zerbi's build-up needs. They have scored only twice in four away league games and have no away win. Chelsea scored two or more in eight of their last ten, and they won 2-0 at Everton last week already without several forwards. Their backup keeper and thin right side are the soft spot, but the home side's scoring output and the weakened Spurs midfield are what I trust. That's why I'm siding with Chelsea to win.
Napoli host Roma. Roma are unbeaten, have conceded only three in seven league games and average about 2.1 xG for against 1.1 against over their last ten. Napoli are looser, giving up about as much quality as they create, and they are short a centre-back and a left-back. Roma lose their own pieces, including the first-choice keeper, but they already won recently without some of them, and a draw is refunded on this pick. That's why I'm siding with Roma.
