Two matches where the visitors are the side creating more, against hosts who are struggling to score or to stop conceding. In both, a level result is a real possibility, so the question is who has the better of the chances rather than who wins outright.
Valencia against Villarreal: over their last ten Villarreal average about 1.9 expected goals for and 1.4 against, while Valencia are at 1.1 for and 1.5 against and score under a goal a game with two forwards missing. Villarreal travelled to Liverpool in midweek and may rotate, and they drew 0-0 at Elche despite 2.15 expected goals, so a stalemate is possible. Still, the chance volume sits with Villarreal, and that is why I'm siding with them.
Willem II against Cambuur: Willem II are winless, creating about 1.2 expected goals and allowing 2.3, with 20.6 shots against per game, and they lose their first-choice goalkeeper. Cambuur are also negative on the same measure, about 0.4 below zero, but clearly less so, and they have not lost in their last five. Cambuur drew three of those five, so a level game is on the table. Even so, the side with the better chance numbers and a keeper advantage is Cambuur, and I'm siding with them.
