[2026 MLS] Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution: Match Preview Kickoff: October 24 at 23:30 UTC
Philadelphia Union and New England Revolution meet at Subaru Park in Chester. A win would send Philadelphia Union to the playoffs regardless of the results elsewhere. New England Revolution have already clinched a playoff spot and are looking to improve their seeding and earn home-field advantage in the playoffs.
1. Match overview and team form
As of October 23, New England Revolution are third in the Eastern Conference, with Philadelphia Union sixth. The table alone does not tell the full story of Philadelphia Union’s current form. Since interim coach Ryan Richter took charge, they have gone 12 wins and 3 draws in 15 regular-season matches, scoring 43 goals and conceding 18. In the 15 matches before the coaching change, they had 1 win, 4 draws and 10 losses, with 18 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home under Richter, they are 7 wins and 2 draws in nine matches. New England Revolution, coached by Marko Mitrovic, have collected points at a steadier pace throughout the season. The teams are six points apart overall, but recent form tells a different story from the standings.
Eastern Conference position: Philadelphia Union 6th / New England Revolution 3rd Season, 30 matches: Philadelphia Union 13 wins, 7 draws, 10 losses / New England Revolution 16 wins, 4 draws, 10 losses Last 10 matches: Philadelphia Union 8 wins, 2 draws / New England Revolution 6 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses Goals in last 10 matches: Philadelphia Union 31 scored, 11 conceded / New England Revolution 17 scored, 16 conceded
Philadelphia Union’s 31 goals in their last 10 matches should not be taken as a scoring rate they can repeat every week. Their 5-0 win over FC Cincinnati and 3-1 win over Chicago Fire both came with a player advantage after an opponent was sent off. Their 4-3 comeback against Sporting Kansas City also featured unusually sharp finishing. Still, they posted expected-goals figures of 1.81 against Real Salt Lake, 2.93 against Orlando City and 2.57 against Charlotte FC, all in 11-v-11 situations. That is evidence they can create chances against different opponents and game states. Milan Iloski has scored in five straight matches and has 19 goals this season, while Bruno Damiani has 12.
The recent defensive trend is less encouraging. Philadelphia Union have conceded in each of their last five matches, letting in nine goals over that span. Against Charlotte FC, they led 1-0 before conceding in the 48th minute after a throw-in and a pass between the defenders, then again in the 62nd minute from a wide cross. Real Salt Lake scored after a short corner and cross, while Orlando City scored from an attack that began with a free kick just outside the penalty area. Even during their unbeaten run, Philadelphia have looked vulnerable when defending set pieces and crosses.
New England Revolution have beaten FC Cincinnati and Chicago Fire in their last two matches. But they were outshot 19-5 by Chicago and conceded 22 shots against Cincinnati. Their expected goals were lower than their opponents’ in both games. Hill and Miller helped create scoring chances, and Turner’s saves also played a part in the wins. By contrast, against Real Salt Lake and Seattle Sounders, they gave the ball away in their own half and conceded first, then allowed more goals on the counter while chasing the game. Both ended in 3-0 defeats. New England look very different when protecting a lead and when they have to chase one.
Both sides have selection concerns. Philadelphia Union will be without Cavan Sullivan and defensive midfielder Jesus Bueno. Cavan Sullivan has drawn defenders toward him by cutting in from the right into the penalty area, then linking up with teammates. Quinn Sullivan is the likely replacement, though his start is not confirmed. Bueno’s absence also leaves fewer midfield options to cover for Danley Jean Jacques and Jovan Lukić. For New England Revolution, starting center back Mamadou Fofana is expected to miss out. Joshua Wynder and Ethan Kohler have started in the middle in the last two matches, both wins, but opponents managed 41 shots between them. Facing Philadelphia Union’s two forwards will be a different test.
Philadelphia Union have won eight of their last 10 meetings with New England Revolution and all five of their last five home meetings. The most recent, in May, was a 2-1 defeat for Philadelphia under Bradley Carnell. Neil Pierre, Kai Wagner and Damiani, all regulars now, did not start that match. This is the first meeting between teams led by Richter and Mitrovic. The key is how well the scoring patterns from past meetings match today’s lineups, rather than the old win-loss record.
Both teams had seven days off after their previous match. Clear skies and a temperature of around 12°C are forecast in Chester at kickoff. Neither the weather nor the rest period gives either team a clear edge. New England need points in the race for position, while Philadelphia need a win to clinch without waiting on other results. If the match is level late on, the home side will have more reason to commit players forward.
2. Matchup analysis
Philadelphia Union’s main attacking threat often starts when the opposition tries to play out. Their two forwards press in a 4-4-2, and when a midfielder or defender intercepts a pass, Damiani and Iloski break forward immediately. Against Orlando City, Nathan Harriel intercepted a pass and the ensuing attack led to a goal. New England Revolution conceded first against both Real Salt Lake and Seattle Sounders after mistakes or turnovers in their own half. If New England try to build through the back again, Philadelphia could win the ball close to goal and create shooting chances.
Cavan Sullivan’s absence matters more when the opponent keeps its defensive shape. From the right, he would move into the penalty area, draw a defender and combine with Frankie Westfield. Quinn Sullivan can join attacks after winning the ball if he starts, but it is unclear whether he can make the same runs into the box against a settled back four from the opening whistle. Philadelphia still managed 19 shots and beat Orlando City 4-2 in the match Cavan Sullivan missed on international duty. The opener came from Harriel intercepting a pass, not from a long attack down the right. Philadelphia can still exploit mistakes without Cavan Sullivan.
If New England Revolution concede first, the matchup gets tougher for them. As they push forward in possession, Iloski can run in behind, while Damiani can hold the ball with his back to goal against a center back and bring teammates into play. Wynder and Kohler have only started together in the last two matches in place of Fofana. If they start again, they will have to deal with Iloski’s runs and Damiani’s link-up play as New England chase the game. If New England score first and sit deeper, Philadelphia will have to break down a compact defense without Cavan Sullivan. Chicago Fire had 19 shots against New England but still failed to score. Creating plenty of shots at home and beating Turner are separate challenges.
For Philadelphia’s defense, Hill’s delivery is the most direct test. Recent goals conceded have repeatedly followed throw-ins, free kicks and corners. Against FC Cincinnati, Hill’s corner was headed in by Wynder. In the May meeting, Philadelphia cleared a corner only for Hill to set up the equalizer for Luca Langoni. Pierre is strong in the air, but Harriel lost the aerial duel on Charlotte FC’s cross for their goal. New England have a route to score from set pieces even if they do not create many chances in open play.
In open play, Miller and Wagner will face off on the flank. Miller cut inside from the right against FC Cincinnati and assisted both of Dor Turgeman’s goals. If Philadelphia lose the ball after Wagner joins the attack, Miller could run into the space behind him. There is no evidence that this exact sequence has led to a goal, but it is a movement Philadelphia will have to account for when Wagner advances. If Wagner and Indiana Vassilev keep attacking New England’s right side, Miller may have to spend more time defending. Vassilev was substituted with an injury against Charlotte FC but was not listed as unavailable. His status could change the balance on that side.
Recent matches have shown a difference in how the teams manage the game after the first goal. New England have won all six of their last 10 matches in which they led at halftime, and lost all three in which they trailed at the break. Philadelphia have come from behind, though some of those wins involved an opponent’s red card or unusually clinical finishing. So the first goal will not guarantee a result for either side. If Philadelphia score first, New England will have to chase a game, something they have struggled with in recent defeats. If New England score first, the home side will have to face Turner and a compact defense without a key player on the right. The same absence can have a different impact depending on who scores first.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We give Philadelphia Union the better chance of scoring first and winning by two goals. New England Revolution’s attempts to build out from the back play into Philadelphia’s counterattacking threat after winning the ball. Philadelphia created chances this way against Orlando City even without Cavan Sullivan. If New England fall behind and push forward, Wynder and Kohler, who have replaced Fofana in the middle, will have to contain Iloski’s runs and Damiani’s link-up play. That gives Philadelphia a route to score first and add another.
We also expect New England Revolution to score. Philadelphia have conceded in each of their last five matches, and set-piece attacks and wide crosses have featured repeatedly in that run. Hill can create those chances with his corners and free kicks. Philadelphia could concede from one of his deliveries after taking the lead, so a home win and both teams to score can go together.
The market leans toward a Philadelphia Union win, reflecting the chances they have consistently created since Richter took charge. We agree with that read on the result. The difference is the number of goals. The market gives a slightly higher chance to a lower-scoring game, but New England pushing forward after falling behind could open up further chances for Philadelphia, while Hill’s set pieces give the visitors a way back into the match. If both come into play, the game could produce more goals than the market expects.
Our score prediction is 3-1 or 4-2 to Philadelphia Union. We expect the home side to take the lead after winning the ball and attacking, then add to it as the two forwards target the space behind New England’s defense while the visitors chase the game. Hill’s set-piece threat could narrow the margin, but we do not expect it to turn the result around. This view depends on Philadelphia being able to win the ball in the opposition half and create chances without Cavan Sullivan. If that approach does not work and New England score first before bringing on extra defensive cover, Turner’s saves could help the visitors produce a different result.
