Two away sides that create more than the hosts they face, against home teams short of firepower.
Den Haag host Heerenveen. Heerenveen build better chances, around 1.4 xG for against a Den Haag defence that allows about 1.8 xG and nearly seven shots on target a game. Den Haag are without their first-choice striker, with another doubtful, and their best recent results came from red-card states that do not repeat. I'm siding with Heerenveen not to lose this one away from home.
Valencia host Villarreal. Villarreal hold the ball and create around 1.9 xG a game, while Valencia have scored only six in nine and are missing their right-back and two forwards. Villarreal come off a hard European night and their away form is poor, so the edge is modest, but the chance gap is real and Valencia's attack is thin. I'm siding with Villarreal not to lose.
