Two MLS matches with a clear structural story each. In one, the visitors are the better team on chances and the hosts are thin at the back. In the other, two porous defences meet, and goals should come from either end.
CF Montreal against Nashville: Nashville lead the table and average about 2.2 expected goals for and 1.1 against over nine games, against Montreal's 1.1 for and 2.0 against. Montreal are missing their first-choice goalkeeper and a centre-back, played a cup match three days ago and have far less rest. Nashville often score early; the danger is a possession-without-chances night like their stalemate at San Jose. I'm siding with Nashville to win.
Columbus Crew against Toronto: both sides concede plenty on the chance measures, and combined expected goals come out around three. Toronto are without two centre-backs and give up about 1.9 goals a game, while Columbus create heavy shot volume at home. Columbus's recent narrow win flattered them, and a rotated line-up after the cup game is possible, but the open shape of the match is what I trust. That's why I'm on plenty of goals in this one.
