Two home sides with the stronger ball-winning and chance-creation profile, each facing an opponent whose defensive or midfield structure is leaking right now. Neither match looks like an open contest of equals: the home team should own the territory and the visitors need a counter or a set piece to stay in it.
Dortmund against Frankfurt: Dortmund create far more shots and better chances than they allow, and Frankfurt have been conceding more than two a game over their last ten, with a lot of that on the road. Dortmund's midfield is thinner than usual, so Frankfurt will get chances on the break, but the Dortmund front line against that back four is the main matchup, and Dortmund have not conceded more than two in any of their last twenty. Expect early control, a first goal before the hour and a second as Frankfurt open up chasing. That is why I'm siding with Dortmund to win by a clear margin.
Chelsea against Tottenham: Tottenham arrive without Bentancur through suspension, with Bergvall and Simons injured, and without their left-back, so the midfield that normally gives them the ball is being rebuilt. Chelsea have scored around two and a half a game in their last ten and Tottenham have not won away in their last four. Spurs will have the ball early but progress slowly, and Chelsea's best moments come from turnovers and wide play. Corners and set pieces are Tottenham's route back, and Chelsea's goalkeeper change gives them something to hope for, but the weight sits with the home side. I'm siding with Chelsea to win the match.
