Mirassol v Internacional is billed as a six-pointer, one point apart in 15th and 17th, but I find the stranger part is how differently the two have been getting their results. Inter have won, won and drawn their last three league games with 28% to 37% of the ball, and the two under their new coach Eduardo Baptista (the Corinthians win and the Grenal draw) were exactly that. Mirassol have shown two faces: 76% of the ball and 27 shots in a 2-2 with Vitoria, and 50% of it and 12 shots in a 2-0 over Botafogo. So the question I'd put is which Mirassol turns up against a side that is happy to give it to them, and what Inter's patched-up back end does with the volume.
Inter first, from the match records in our DB (some results are still provisional). They beat Corinthians 2-1 at home with 28% of the ball while conceding 22 shots to 17 (xG 2.44 to 1.76). Before that, Chapecoense away finished 2-1 to Inter from 4 shots and 0.34 xG, with 37% possession. At Gremio in the Grenal it was 1-1 on 33%, and Gremio led the xG 1.58 to 0.77. So the pattern is a team that defends in numbers, concedes plenty of shots and scores from very little. That is a coping style, not a comfortable one, and it asks a lot of the goalkeeper.
Which is where the squad news matters. Per Gazeta Esportiva, Inter have four confirmed absentees: Alan Patrick (thigh), Maripan (still doing field work with physios), Sanabria (calf) and goalkeeper Anthoni (a leg abscess with fever). The squad list names only Henrique Menke and Matheus Cunha as keepers. VAVEL's probable XI has a back three of Bruno Gomes, Mercado and Juninho, but it was written before Anthoni was ruled out, so I'd treat the shape as open.
Mirassol's side of it. Their 0-1 at Bahia looks like a plain defeat, but the records say they had 10 shots and 2.15 xG to Bahia's 16 and 2.75, and Reinaldo missed a penalty in the 97th minute. VAVEL reports João Victor is back from suspension and lists no confirmed injury or suspension absences for Mirassol. The Vitoria draw is the useful warning: 18 of their 27 shots came from outside the box and the opponent scored twice in the first 12 minutes. Plenty of the ball does not automatically mean the right kind of chances.
My read is that a keeper with little recent game time matters most if Mirassol's volume is good volume, meaning box entries rather than 25-metre efforts. If it's the Vitoria kind, Inter's low-possession routine may suit them fine. I'd also watch whether Inter's early minutes are about getting the first goal, as in the Corinthians game, or about getting through a spell without conceding. Curious whether anyone has watched Inter under Baptista and sees a plan in the 30% possession or just a patch.
