Galatasaray say they will attack Barcelona at home, and I don't doubt it, but the useful question is what their attacking has cost them in the games where it didn't work. Against Kasimpasa last week they had 25 shots and 2.40 xG, yet it was 1-0 at the break and level at 1-1 after 68 minutes before two goals at the very end. Their two heavy defeats this season came the other way around: 0-4 at Trabzonspor and 1-3 at Sporting in the opening Champions League game. Barcelona, who have been taking 70 to 80 percent of the ball in their recent league games, are a different kind of opponent for that profile, so I'd watch what Galatasaray's first ten minutes of pressing leave behind them.
Galatasaray first, from the match records in our DB (some results are still marked provisional). At Trabzonspor on Sept 19 they actually had more of the ball (54%) and more shots (13 to 7), but Trabzonspor scored four from those seven, three of them inside the first 44 minutes, for 2.20 xG against Galatasaray's 0.96. At Sporting the club's own preview notes they scored first and still lost 3-1. Taken together, I read it less as \"Galatasaray can't defend\" and more as a team that commits numbers forward and gets punished by the one clean counter, which is a very specific thing to take into a match against Barcelona.
Barcelona's side of it is almost the mirror. In the 3-0 over Getafe they had 83% possession, 23 shots and 1.93 xG, with two goals before the half hour; at Sevilla on Sept 19 it was 24 shots to 7 and 3.47 xG to 0.40. Both opponents sat deep and barely threatened. Istanbul will not give them that game. Hansi Flick has left Raphinha (precaution), Frenkie de Jong (close, not ready), Christensen and Bardghji at home, per the club's preview, while Cubarsi and Cancelo were rested at the weekend. Buruk's line, in Goal's report of his press conference, is that Galatasaray will not settle for defending whatever the line-up. If both teams do what they say, the match is decided by who is better in the transitions rather than in the passing, and Barcelona's recent games say very little about that.
