Fluminense's last five games read better on the scoreboard than on the chance count, and that is the thing I'd hold up against the Palmeiras tie. They scored 9 goals from 6.35 xG and conceded 7 from 9.29 against, so they have been lucky or clinical at both ends at once. Palmeiras are the reverse: 9 goals from 11.15 xG, and only 4 conceded from 4.54. In a semifinal first leg I'd ask which of those gaps closes first, not who has the better squad.
Fluminense first, from the match records in our DB (some results are still provisional). The 3-1 at Corinthians came with 43% of the ball, 10 shots to 20, and an xG count they lost narrowly (2.38 to 2.44). The 4-0 over Coritiba was the one clean game, 22 shots and 10 on target, but even there the xG was only 1.76 to 1.51. The two defeats were different in kind: Flamengo had 17 shots to their 12 for a 1-0, and at Atletico-MG it was 1-3 with xG of 0.55 to 1.90. Their forward line is also thinner than that run suggests, because Cano and John Kennedy are both listed out, along with Alisson and Matheus Reis.
Palmeiras have been creating from every kind of game state. Against Corinthians it was 22 shots to 12 and 2.66 xG for a 4-1, and against Bahia only 41% of the ball but 26 shots for a 1-0. The one result that didn't follow was the 2-3 away at LDU Quito in the previous Libertadores game, where they had 31% of the ball and still the better xG (1.66 to 1.12). That is the game I'd watch for the link: they can lose a match they out-chance when the opponent turns a few moments into goals, which is what Fluminense have been doing lately.
The side news matters too. Gazeta Esportiva (published on Oct 13) lists Abel Ferreira as suspended from the touchline for this match, with his assistant in charge, and Jefté and Vitor Roque unavailable. I wouldn't read a lot into a coach missing from the bench by itself, since the XI and the shape look unchanged, but it is a first leg away from home with a new voice giving the instructions. What I'd watch is whether Fluminense's low-possession, few-shots style keeps converting once Palmeiras get the usual 20-plus shots, or whether the regression arrives in this one.
Sources: our match records and xG figures for both teams (DB); Gazeta Esportiva, "Fluminense x Palmeiras: saiba onde assistir ao jogo de ida da semifinal da Libertadores", Oct 13, 2026.
