Salzburg and Milan both came out of their last league games having had most of the ball and not much to show for it, so I'd ask who is happy to give it up in this match. Salzburg's coach Danny Röhl has said they will take on "a different role than is usually the case in the Bundesliga" at home to Milan, which sounds like an admission that the ball may not be theirs. Milan are rotating and have lost their main centre-back, so the useful question is whether a rebuilt back line is more comfortable with the ball or without it.
Salzburg first, from the match records in our DB (results still marked provisional). At Grazer AK they had 64% of the ball and finished 0-0, but they were out-shot 21 to 12 and 17 of Grazer's shots came from inside the box, with xG almost level (1.07 to 1.12). Their last home league game, 3-0 against Sturm Graz, was 0-0 at half-time and all three goals came between the 72nd and 83rd minutes, with Sturm down to ten men from the 76th. So the numbers on the ball look better than the shape behind it: when Salzburg hold possession they have been open at the back, and that is a different problem against Milan's forwards than against Grazer.
Milan's last two matches point the same way from the other direction. Against Benfica they had 61% of the ball, 17 shots and 1.03 xG to 0.63, and still lost 0-2 after conceding in the 16th minute. At Sassuolo it was 59% and 1.17 xG to 1.20 for a 1-1, and Gabbia went off injured in the 20th minute. The only Milan goal came after Modric was brought on at the break (Rabiot scored, Modric assisted). Amorim said in his press conference that the side will have players who have already had minutes this season but will also rotate, and Milan's own preview lists Gabbia and Saelemaekers as unavailable. Pavlovic, who spent two years at Salzburg, will play, so the back line gets a familiar face next to a patched-up group.
Where I would be careful: I don't know the line-ups yet, and a rotated Milan is not the same team that produced those numbers. What I'd watch is the first half hour. If Salzburg are willing to sit and spring forward, which is close to how midfielder Bartosz Mazurek describes it ("defend determinedly, and play with pace going forward"), the Grazer pattern of a lot of ball and little threat gets turned onto Milan. If they press high instead, Milan's Benfica problem, territory without a goal and then a deficit, could repeat itself the other way round.
Sources: Milan's press conference report on acmilan.com, Salzburg's club preview carried by Yahoo Sports, and our DB match records for the Salzburg and Milan games used above.
