Bragantino's six games without a win look like a team in trouble, but the two most recent ones were the most one-sided games they have played in the stretch: 33 shots to 8 in a 1-1 with Mirassol, and 23 to 8 in a 0-1 at Atletico-MG. Cruzeiro come in with the opposite profile, a team that has been winning without needing much of the ball. I'd watch whether Bragantino's volume can turn into early box entries, because Cruzeiro's last away win came from fewer chances than the other side had.
Bragantino first, from the match records in our DB (some results are still marked provisional). Against Mirassol they had 71% of the ball and xG 2.56 to 1.19, but Mirassol had a man sent off in the 28th minute, so that number is inflated. The Atletico-MG game is the cleaner one: 11 against 11, xG 1.27 to 0.50, 23 shots, 10 corners, and a single goal conceded in the 18th minute. Before that, at Flamengo, they were well beaten on xG (0.76 to 2.94). So the run is part bad finishing and part a leaky spell, not one story.
Cruzeiro are the odd case. At Vitoria on Sept 20 they won 3-1 with 14 shots to 21 and xG 0.66 to 0.50; the goals came in the 46th, 66th and 90th+7 minutes, and Keny Arroyo set up two of them. Against Sao Paulo on Oct 8 it was a proper performance, 2-0 with xG 2.74 to 1.06. Away from home the season tally is 6 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats, 18 scored and 24 conceded, so I wouldn't treat the 48 points as road form.
The line-ups are less settled than the table suggests. Central da Toca says Rodriguinho and Henry Mosquera are doubts for Bragantino, with Alix Vinicius back from the concussion protocol and Ignacio Sosa back from suspension; two outlets project different shapes (a back three in one, a back four in the other). On the Cruzeiro side, Lucas Romero is reported out with calf pain, Zé Lucas is expected to take his place, and Arroyo is expected to start after coming off the bench last time. Reports disagree on whether centre-back Fabricio Bruno is available. The supplier feed also lists Gabriel Pec as out with a broken leg.
One more thing: Bragança Paulista's Civil Defence recorded 27.4 mm of rain and gusts up to about 44 km/h in the 24 hours up to the morning of match day (Atibaia.com.br). That is a reading from before the game, not a pitch report, so I wouldn't lean on it, but a heavy surface would help the side that needs fewer touches.
