Pachuca and Necaxa have been playing two different halves of football lately, and the upcoming match is where those halves meet. In their last two games in our records Pachuca were out-created before the break (xG 0.91 to 2.39, both of those opponents scoring first) and then took over after it (2.59 to 1.18). Necaxa have been the reverse: 2.60 xG in the first halves of their last two, only 0.54 in the second halves, and no second-half goal. I'd watch whether Necaxa's good opening spell is enough to put them in front before the half where Pachuca have been strongest.
Pachuca first, from the match records in our DB (results still marked provisional). At home to Tijuana they were 0-2 down at the break, with a penalty in the 17th minute and a second goal in the 42nd, then finished 2-2 with Rondón scoring in the 55th and 90th minutes. They had 29 shots to 8 and xG 2.69 to 1.76, but 1.99 of that xG came after half-time. At Santos Laguna it was 0-1 at the break (a penalty in first-half stoppage time) and 0-1 at the end, with 11 shots to 16 and xG 0.81 to 1.82. In the table data they have no home win in four (two draws, two losses, 6 scored and 8 conceded) but three wins in six away.
Necaxa: at home to Club America they scored in the 37th and 43rd minutes, and it was 2-2 at the break. Then America got a third in the 56th and a penalty in the 75th, and it ended 2-4. Necaxa's xG was 2.26 before the break and 0.23 after. At Atletico San Luis, Carranza gave them the lead in the 10th minute, it was 1-1 at the break, and two second-half goals (an own goal in the 54th, another in the 81st) made it 1-3, with San Luis at 1.37 xG after the interval. In both games Necaxa scored first, and in both they were the weaker side after the break.
Two caveats. These are only two games for each side, and some of Pachuca's second-half volume came from chasing a deficit, which inflates shot counts. Also, Pachuca have beaten Necaxa seven times in their last ten meetings (one Necaxa win, two draws), but that history comes mostly from earlier seasons and different squads. The squad data also lists four Pachuca players as doubtful with injuries, which I'd treat as a flag rather than a confirmed absence list. So the question I'd carry into this one is not who is better on paper, but what the score looks like when the first half ends.
