Instituto against Boca Juniors is a match where I'd be careful with both teams' last results, because each was shaped by a sending-off. Instituto's two most recent league wins (4-1 away at Independiente, 3-1 at home to Talleres) both came against opponents who lost a player just before the break. Boca's 2-0 at San Lorenzo also came against ten men. What I'd watch is how the first hour goes if everyone is still on the pitch: that is the version of this game neither side has shown much of lately.
Instituto first, from the match records in our DB (results still marked provisional). At Independiente it was 1-1 at the break, Instituto scored in the 16th minute and Independiente's Maxi Meza was sent off in the 44th. After that Instituto added goals in the 51st, 65th and 80th. Fair play to them, the xG was 1.56 to 0.44 and 13 shots to 8, so they weren't just carried by the red card. Against Talleres it was 0-0 at half-time, Talleres had a man sent off in first-half stoppage time, and the goals came in the 50th, 58th and an own goal in the 80th. Three of the seven goals in those two games arrived within eight minutes of the restart.
Boca's recent games look very different on the stat sheet. Against Union de Santa Fe they had 25 shots to 4, 69% of the ball and xG of 3.02 to 0.17, yet it was only 1-0 until the 83rd minute, with the third goal in the 92nd. At San Lorenzo (red card for the hosts in the 31st) it was 76% possession and 16 shots, but the first goal didn't come until the 57th. So Boca keep getting plenty of territory and then wait a long time for it to count. There is also a Copa Argentina tie at Racing from Sept 27 in the DB, but no score is recorded for it, so I'm leaving it out of this read.
The interlock, as I see it: Instituto have found their goals in the stretch right after half-time, when opponents were already short or disorganised, and Boca tend to need an hour to turn control into a goal. If the match stays eleven against eleven, that favours the side that is happy to wait, and I don't think the DB tells us which one that is. Head-to-head is thin (2 meetings on file, one win each, Boca's last was 2-0 in March), so I'd lean on how this game opens, not on history. One more unknown: I couldn't confirm either lineup yet, so the question of who starts up front is still open.
