Como against Roma looks like a clash of volume and efficiency, but the thing I'd actually watch is what Roma do with a lead. In their last three games Roma were ahead at half-time every time (2-0 v Inter, 1-0 at Torino, 1-0 v Fenerbahce) and in every one of them the opponent had the better second-half xG. Como have been the side producing shots (27 at Frosinone, 29 v Parma) without a steady return, so if Roma get their usual first-half goal the question is whether Como's pressure arrives in time to matter.
Roma first, from the match records in our DB (some results are still marked provisional). Against Inter they led 2-0 through Manu Koné in the 6th and 37th minutes, then conceded in the 46th and 79th for 2-2. Half-by-half xG there: Roma 1.18 then 0.48, Inter 0.99 then 1.87. At Torino they scored in the 40th and again only in the 90th+3, second-half xG 0.41 to Torino's 0.78. At Fenerbahce Cristante scored in the 39th, Brown equalised in the 48th, and the second-half xG was 0.18 to 1.39. That is three games in which Roma got in front early and then largely stopped generating anything.
Como's side of it is less tidy. At Frosinone on Sept 20 they had 27 shots to 22 and 65% of the ball, xG 2.12 to 2.18, and still lost 0-2 because both goals came before the break (14th minute and 45+3). Against Parma they had 29 shots to 12 and xG 2.98 to 1.15 and needed until the 83rd minute to get a second goal, then conceded in 90+2. The Leipzig game (4-1) was the clean one: goals in the 15th, 38th, 54th and 90th. So Como can dominate territory, but the result has depended on whether they concede before they find their rhythm.
The squad news (feed observations, listed as confirmed out) pulls on both sides. Como are without Moise Kean, with Douvikas the listed alternative. Roma have Cristante, Bah, Koulierakis and Svilar out, which touches midfield, centre-back and goalkeeper at once. Koné, who scored both goals against Inter, is the listed alternative in midfield. Head-to-head in our records is 2-2 over four meetings, with Como winning the most recent one 2-1 in March, so that tells us little beyond "this is rarely a blowout".
My read is not about who is better. If Roma score first, the interesting stretch is the first twenty minutes after the break, because that is where their last three games turned. If Como score first, Roma's recent matches say very little about how they chase a game, since they haven't had to.
