Freiburg have scored inside the first 35 minutes of all four of their league games this season, and Schalke's only league goal conceded before the 79th minute came in the 18th at Augsburg. That is the collision I'd look at here, more than third place against twelfth. If Schalke are still level at the hour, this is the kind of game they have been comfortable in; the one time they fell behind early, it came apart after a red card.
Freiburg first, from the match records in our DB (some results are still marked provisional). Werder Bremen, 4-1 at home: goals in the 29th and 45th, 2-0 at the break. Paderborn away, 1-0: Eggestein scored in the 26th, and 1.09 of their 1.24 xG came before half-time. Gladbach, 5-0 at home: goals in the 23rd and 29th, then three more after Gladbach lost Kleindienst to a red card in the 52nd. At Frankfurt, 2-2: they fell behind in the 10th minute, scored in the 34th, went in 2-1 down and equalised in the 48th, with 22 shots to 10 and xG 3.09 to 2.18. So the early goal is a real habit, but it has not always meant control: Frankfurt scored twice from ten shots.
Schalke's side of it. Bayern, 0-0 at home on 17% of the ball and 4 shots. Elversberg, 0-0 at home with 41% possession and xG 1.01 each. Union Berlin away, 3-1 from 34% possession: 1-0 up at the break, 2-0 up until a stoppage-time goal for Union, then Wöber's in the 13th minute of added time. Augsburg away, 0-3: Schalke's first-half xG was 1.83 to 1.70, yet they were 0-1 down from the 18th, then Schallenberg was sent off in the 62nd and two more goals followed (79th, 90+2).
Put together, three of the four goals Schalke have conceded came after the 79th minute, two of them while a man down and one in injury time at Union, and none of their three league goals has come at home. The scenario we have no league evidence for is Schalke chasing a game against a team that has already scored. The feed also lists two Freiburg defenders (Ogbus, Yilmaz) out and Dejan Ljubicic out for Schalke, so lineups are worth a look before kick-off.
