The Marcos Rojo registration story will get the headlines, but what strikes me about this semifinal first leg is that both teams are missing pieces in the same zone. Estudiantes have lost Rojo to a Conmebol rejection and, per Itatiaia, have two more centre-backs suspended (Tomás Palacios and González Pírez). Flamengo have no Jorginho, Arrascaeta or Evertton Araújo, so Saúl and Paquetá are expected to fill the middle. My question is who ends up more exposed in the space between midfield and back line, and whether Estudiantes' answer to a patched-up defence is to sit deeper and hand the ball to a rebuilt Flamengo midfield.
Flamengo first, from the match records in our DB (some results are still provisional). In their league game at Santos they led 2-0 at the break and drew 2-2 after two late Neymar penalties, with Santos at 2.10 xG to 0.17 in the second half. I wouldn't read that as a collapse pattern, because Jorginho was sent off for handball in the 79th minute and the penalties came at 82 and 88. But it is exactly his position that is now empty. Earlier in September they won 2-0 away with 37% of the ball and four shots, so they can win without the ball, and Itatiaia's and Diário 24 Horas' reports say Bruno Henrique, their top scorer in this edition with five goals, is the likelier starter up front over Pedro.
Estudiantes' recent games are harder to read than the scores. The 3-0 over Gimnasia Mendoza was goalless at the break and 2.64 of its 2.82 xG came after it, with the goals in the 83rd, 90th and 94th minutes. The 2-2 at Central Córdoba had them ahead on shots (22 to 15) but behind on possession (41%), and both Central goals arrived within two minutes of each other in the first half. Vive La Plata notes Medina rested several regulars there, so I would not use that game as a clean test of the defence.
The caveat is that none of these line-ups were confirmed when I looked. Itatiaia's probable XI still lists Rojo, which La Gaceta's report that Conmebol rejected him contradicts, so I'm treating the Vive La Plata XI (Funes Mori and Núñez at centre-back) as the more current guess. The return leg is at the Maracanã, which is why I would not assume Flamengo need to chase this one. What would you expect from Estudiantes: an early press to use the crowd, or a compact block?
