Both of these matches are built as two-way games rather than contests with one clear winner. At St James' Park, a Newcastle side that has the ball but leaks chances meets a Villa side that hurts teams on the break but arrives with tired legs and a patched-up left side. In Curitiba, an Athletico team that starts fast and fades late meets a Palmeiras back line missing its captain and its first-choice right wing-back. In both, how each side reacts to the first goal matters more than who gets it.
Newcastle under Jaissle keep the ball without making much of it, and they give a lot away. They have conceded 13 league goals, joint most in the division, Hull took 22 shots at St James' Park, and stand-in keeper Hornicek gave away the early penalty at Coventry. Villa are comfortable without the ball away from home: Kamara wins it, Manzambi and McGinn carry it, and Jackson has four goals in his last three games. They won at Tottenham with barely a third of the possession.
The key matchup runs the other way too. With Ruggeri and Maatsen out, Wan-Bissaka plays on his wrong side at left-back, facing Murphy and Dedic on Newcastle's right, which is the home side's clearest route to the box. Newcastle have scored in nine of their last ten, and neither team has kept more than two clean sheets in that run.
What happens after the first goal keeps this open. When Newcastle went two up against Hull, they sat back and let Hull build chances after the break. When they fell behind at Coventry, they chased, gave the ball away and conceded late. Villa's short rest after their midweek European game thins their late threat, but it also makes them harder to trust at the back for a full ninety minutes.
In Brazil, Athletico at home under Odair Hellmann push their wing-backs high and go early: they scored the opening goal before the 35th minute in five of their last six, and Viveros leads the league with 21. The cost comes late, as eight of the last twenty goals they conceded came in the final quarter of an hour. Palmeiras' excellent defensive record was built with Gustavo Gomez and Giay, who are both suspended, and mostly against sides that sat deep and barely attacked. With a semi-final second leg coming in midweek, Palmeiras are expected to rotate, which points to a compact team that counters through Sosa and Arias and brings its starters on around the hour.
Palmeiras don't need open play to score: set pieces, Piquerez crosses and that late bench have all produced goals recently. Athletico have scored in nine of their last ten, and Palmeiras can go top with a win, so neither side will settle for a draw.
That's why I'm backing goals at both ends in both matches: each attack meets the weak part of the opposing defence, and in both games the first goal is more likely to open the game up than to close it down.
