Pachuca have been a road team this Apertura in the most literal sense. Benjamín Mora's side have taken 10 of their 13 points away from home, as Criterio Hidalgo points out, and they're still without a home win in five. The catch is that the road results look better than the games behind them. They beat Atlante 3-0 while facing 32 shots, and across the matches we have stats for they've conceded more expected goals than they've created.
That's why Monterrey's own pattern matters here. Rayados' worst home result was a 1-3 to San Luis with 72% of the ball and 26 shots, and the 0-0 with Tigres came at 63%. Their 1-0 over Cruz Azul came with 47%. So the likely script, Monterrey pressing a deep Pachuca block at the BBVA, is the one that has cost Rayados points, while the shot volume Pachuca keep allowing says that script could also break the other way.
Personnel tilts it a little. Francisco Venegas is suspended after reaching five yellows, with Mauricio Isais the likeliest stand-in at left-back according to RotoWire, and SI lists Kenedy and Andrés Arroyo among Pachuca's injured. On Monterrey's side the picture is murkier than the club line suggests: Almeyda says he has an almost complete squad after Medina and Orellano were recovered during the week, but SI's list still has Orellano carrying a muscle problem, and Djurdjevic is working apart.
The history pulls both ways too. Pachuca have won their last three visits to the BBVA, yet Mora has lost all four of his previous meetings with Rayados with Atlas and Querétaro, and Pachuca come in three without a win. Almeyda has called the run-in, with seven games left to reach the Liguilla, difficult but not impossible. I'd watch the first spell where Monterrey have long possession: do they create clean chances against that block, or does Pachuca's habit of surviving pressure hold one more time?
