Monza against Cagliari is not really a question of who wins, but of whether each attack can find the way the other side concedes, and both of them can. Over in London, Tottenham have the ball and the shots but not the goals, and their creative group has just got thinner. Coventry arrive with a settled centre-back pair that has already soaked up heavy pressure without breaking. Two different matches, one shared theme: the numbers on paper are not what decides the final score.
Monza have scored in all six league games and created plenty of chances in every game we have data for, even without much of the ball. Cagliari's clean sheets came against attacks that barely created anything, or thanks to one outstanding goalkeeping day at Udinese. Monza's attackers are all available, so that route stays open.
The other half of the story is Monza's back line. They have conceded in all six league games, and the unit that concedes has been hit hardest: Lucchesi is suspended, and Maye and Ziolkowski are out, which leaves no recognised centre-back on the bench. Cagliari's front line of Maldini, Mendy and Nzola is intact, and Maldini has scored in four straight league games. Against a side that does not hold possession, Cagliari get more of the ball and more shots than they did in their recent games against possession-heavy teams.
Whoever scores first, the match should open up rather than close down. If Cagliari lead, Monza chase and leave space behind. If Monza lead, Cagliari have to come forward against a reshuffled defence. That's why I'm backing both sides to get on the scoresheet in this one.
Tottenham under De Zerbi have scored only three league goals in six, and they have won by two or more just once in their last twenty games. The chances are there, but the finishing is not. Now Bergvall and Savio are ruled out, Bentancur is banned and Porro is missing, on top of the creators who were already out, so control in midfield rests heavily on Tonali.
Coventry's centre-backs Thomas and Pinnock played the full match in the win over Newcastle, and the same pair absorbed twenty-four shots at Forest without conceding. Coventry's defensive absences were already in place for both of those wins, so nothing new opens up for Spurs. Coventry also keep their own threats: long throws, penalties and a deeper bench with Simms and Awoniyi.
Expect Spurs to pile up possession and blocked shots against a deep block, with nerves building if it stays level. A comfortable home win by a big margin needs both an early goal and finishing far above anything this side has shown. That's why I'm siding with Coventry to keep this one close.
