Gilardino has been open about how Parma will approach his first home game: suffer when they have to, get the preventive marking right because Torino are good going forward, and hit back rather than lead. That hands Torino the ball, and Toro News itself admits their possession has looked sterile at times. I'd push the worry one step further, though: Parma's counter isn't proven either. Their last two league games produced 0.46 and 0.53 xG, so a plan built on striking back needs a goal from very little, and whoever scores first probably decides who has to carry the rest of this match.
Torino's own numbers say they're more dangerous without the ball. Their best attacking display in our stats is the 2-1 over Udinese with 38% possession and 2.42 xG against 0.7. When they've had 60% or more, the return has been thin: 1.14 xG in the 1-1 at Bologna, and 0.58 at Fiorentina, a game they won 2-1 while facing 14 shots. Even the Udinese winner came from Okoye colliding with a teammate on a long ball, so I'd trust the chance numbers more than the scorelines.
Parma have been under 50% possession in each of their last five games with stats, and across ten they average 8.9 shots and 0.7 xG against 15.9 shots and 1.8 xG conceded. The Tardini has been kinder than the road, though: three scored and three conceded in three home league games, against one scored and seven conceded away. Nicolussi Caviglia is out in midfield and Almqvist and Elphege are out up front, so Gilardino confirming Romero as a starter and Bernabé being back to full availability matter more than usual.
On Torino's side, Israel (shoulder) and Ilkhan (adductor) are out and Fortini is doubtful at best. The expected 4-4-2 has Perri in goal, Belghali at right-back and Vlasic back on the right of midfield. That's relevant to exactly the scenario Gilardino is planning for: if Torino push their full-backs on to carry the game, the space behind them is where Touré and Romero would want to run.
So here's what I'll be watching: if it's still level after an hour, does Parma stay patient at home with four points from six games, or does the crowd push them into carrying a game their numbers say they're not built for?
