Italiano says Beşiktaş want to be the side that controls the game, keeps the ball and creates the chances at Papara Park, and across ten games they've averaged 62% possession. The catch is that their most convincing recent win didn't look like that: at Hoffenheim they had 46% and the decisive goals came from quick breaks finished by Oh Hyeon-gyu. Trabzonspor have the same habit, beating Galatasaray 4-0 with 46% of the ball and losing 0-1 at Konyaspor with 71%. Two teams that look sharper reacting than carrying, and the real question is which of them is fit enough in midfield to sit off and run.
That's where the absence lists bite. Trabzonspor are thin right in the middle: Melih Kabasakal is suspended, Okay Yokuşlu is injured, and Ajansspor also lists Mendy and Bouchouari as missing. Paul Onuachu, who finished the opener at KuPS, is out injured as well, which Thomas Reis called very unlucky while saying injuries are no excuse. Beşiktaş left captain Orkun Kökçü out of the squad injured and Rashica is missing too, while Vlahovic travelled after sitting out Hoffenheim with a stomach problem and is in Ajansspor's probable XI.
The venue split is stark. Trabzonspor have played three league games at home and scored 11 while conceding one; Beşiktaş have one win from three away with five conceded. Both sides won away in Europe four days before this match and both play at home in Europe again a few days after it, Trabzonspor against Hearts and Beşiktaş against Crystal Palace, so neither squad really has the legs for 90 minutes of chasing. The last two meetings were a 3-3 in Trabzon and a 2-1 Trabzonspor win in Istanbul.
My suspicion is that Beşiktaş without Kökçü will find it harder to keep the ball the way Italiano wants, which would drag this toward the transition game both teams seem to prefer. But I'm not convinced Trabzonspor have enough fit midfielders to play that game for a full match either. Which side do you think ends up holding the ball, whether they want it or not?
