Two openers, two different shapes. In New Orleans, Indiana's star is back, but the Pacers are missing exactly the players who protect the ball and defend the point of attack, against a Pelicans side built to take it away. In Houston, the Rockets' best repeated weapon, the offensive glass, runs into the thinnest part of the Dallas roster. One looks like a tight game decided by possessions, the other like a structural edge for the home side.
Pelicans vs Pacers: Indiana turned it over between 17 and 27 times in every preseason game, at home and on the road. McConnell, the backup ball-handler, and Nesmith, the best wing defender, are both out. New Orleans forced 23 or more turnovers in three of four games, including at OKC, and with Zion drawing contact it took about thirteen more free throws a game than Indiana did. Those are the two columns where the Pelicans' length and pressure meet Indiana's weak spots.
Indiana has a real answer: a lot of threes against a defence that allowed about 45 attempts a game, plus Zubac on the glass against a poor rebounding side. That keeps the Pacers in it, and the second-quarter bench stretch, where Indiana was weakest in preseason, is the swing point. A finish inside one or two possessions is the central case. That's why I'm siding with New Orleans, taking the points at home.
Rockets vs Mavericks: Houston's offensive rebounding was record-level across a full season with this core. Dallas comes in without Lively and Aldama, which leaves Gafford and Cisse to hold the boards for long minutes. Even if the glass comes out level, Durant and Sengun give Houston a second way to score in the half court, while Dallas leans on two creators, one of them Irving in his first game back from a long injury.
The Dallas turnover numbers came with Flagg and Irving on the floor, while Houston's sloppy preseason games came with its reserves in Macao, not this core. Dallas can hang around early on shot-making, but Houston's size should wear the Mavericks down through the middle quarters. I'm siding with Houston to win at home.
