Sparta's wide service and Fortuna's compact middle make the first clearance a key moment. Sparta have created useful chances even without dominating the ball. Fortuna can counter into the channel behind an advanced wingback and threaten from a dead ball. The match should turn on which side can keep creating close shots after that first exchange.
Babadi has supplied Zonneveld and Toornstra from the left across different game states, and Sparta kept making second-half chances even against Ajax. Fortuna restricted Twente but allowed many box shots at NEC, while several recent wins came from much thinner chance supply. Sparta's Mito absence is current and was already present in the Ajax game; Van Bergen returned there. Descotte missed Fortuna's latest match through illness, Zeefuik missed it injured, and Ihattaren played only a short stint, so the projected returning attack has limited established minutes. I side with Sparta's repeated box entries and second-ball finishing.
