These cup ties should be decided by how cleanly each team exits the first press. A wide runner can turn one recovered ball into a box entry, while the next clearance can start another attack. The relevant comparison is the current receiving group and its ability to sustain that sequence.
Fulham can build through Iwobi, King and Bobb and recover loose clearances near the Palace box. Palace's back three has a direct first pass to Nketiah or Mateta and a familiar release to Mitchell behind Fulham's advancing right side; that route appeared twice at this ground in September. Sarr is now listed out after missing Newcastle, while Larsen's status and Henderson's return are more nuanced than the supplier labels; Fulham intend a strong side, but their last two controlled wins each stayed narrow. That's why I'm siding with Crystal Palace to remain close.
Bournemouth's Cook and Christie can press Villa's reassembled first pass and send Gannon-Doak into the next wide action. Villa can break through the middle toward Mbaye or Buendia, but Onana, Wan-Bissaka and Ruggeri are confirmed out after also missing City, and Maatsen is the only reported natural left-back. Bournemouth's own Scott and Toth absences leave Cook and Christie as the observed central pair, while their cup link with Gannon-Doak has already produced close chances. That gives Bournemouth the clearer early regain and follow-up route at home. That's why I'm siding with Bournemouth to win the regulation contest.
