KCC's answer to its own problems creates its next problem: when it crashes the glass, its slow backcourt gets exposed the other way. Wonju DB arrives with a new second import that changes the shape of its worst recent result. In San Francisco, the Warriors and Lakers each aim their best attack at the other's weakest defensive area. Neither defence looks equipped to slow what it is about to face.
KCC against DB turns on the third quarter. KCC led SK 50-48 and Mobis 54-48 at half-time, then lost those third quarters 11-27 and 14-26. Front-court giveaways and slow recovery were the cause, and the Mobis game showed the trade clearly: KCC won offensive rebounds 14-6 and lost fast-break points 7-13. The bench gives little behind two imports, and this is a third game in five days.
DB is the team best built to punish that. It commits just 8.0 turnovers a game while forcing 10.6, and it wants to run. Its worst glass result, 32-50 at KoGas, came with one import while Hammonds played 45 minutes. Ellenson and Kang are out, but Alan Williams has been registered and is expected to debut, which fills the second-import slot in the shared quarters and takes weight off Hammonds.
The matchup to watch is Long and King against Hammonds and Alvano's drives. Both KCC imports fouled out in the first meeting, and Long fouled out again at Mobis. KCC's guards can still shoot their way into a half-time lead, so a few points down at the break would not change my read. My count has this as a narrow game settled late. That's why I'm siding with DB to win on the road.
Warriors against Lakers is about two attacks. With Doncic, the Lakers have scored 127, 125, 132 and 129, feeding Kessler at the rim, and he went 12-of-12 in the opener. The Warriors now start Green at centre and use Horford for short minutes, Niang is likely to stay in for Santos, and opponents have shot 56% or better inside the arc in the three boxes I could read. Holding Jokic and Gobert was impressive, but neither had a passer like Doncic feeding him.
Going the other way, Curry takes a high volume of threes and gets to the line, and he gets long stretches against a Lakers backcourt that defends poorly once Thybulle is off him. Lendeborg has scored 18 or more in four straight games. The Lakers' defence has given up 117, 123 and 136 in its last three Doncic games, and the 136 at Portland came with 41 free throws conceded.
The opener can mislead here. Its total was held down by the Warriors shooting 8-of-36 from three in a game Curry left early. Podziemski is back, the game is at Chase Center, and both teams have had about two days of rest with no schedule edge either way. Doncic came off the injury report after sitting one game with back tightness. Expect the Warriors to keep level early through Curry, the Lakers' bench to push in the second quarter, and a close finish to add fouls at the end. That's why I'm siding with a high-scoring game where both teams get into the 110s and 120s.
