Two matches, one shared idea: each favourite goes straight at the opponent's weakest end with a channel that already worked against this kind of opposition. KAL beat Hyundai in the cup final while losing the serve, block and error columns, because their setter kept finding the middle and Hyundai's setter could not. Detroit's defence lives on forced turnovers, and Brooklyn now hands the ball to rookie guards. In both games the underdog's path depends on a fix it has not shown yet.
KAL against Hyundai is the league opener and a rematch of a cup final six days earlier. KAL win through organisation. Han Sun-soo spreads the attack, and when the wings stall he goes to the middle: Kim Kyu-min scored 12 quick-attack points in that final. Hyundai are taller and serve harder. They out-blocked KAL eight to five and won the ace count, but their middles scored one attack point each, and KAL won the attack-point count by thirteen. Across the two cup meetings KAL took six of seven sets.
The key matchup is Hyundai's setter against KAL's block. Both of Hyundai's setters struggled to feed the middle against this KAL, and coach Blanc named that flaw himself. Six days of practice and a possible switch at setter or opposite are his levers, but they haven't produced a better result against this opponent yet. No absence has been reported for either side, KAL have the deeper rotation with two opposites, and they are at home in Gyeyang. That's why I'm siding with KAL to win.
Brooklyn against Detroit sets the league leader against a winless home side. Detroit forced 25 turnovers against Charlotte and 18 at New York, and Cunningham carries the half court. Brooklyn's defence has given up 125 or more in three of four games, and its ball security has been its weak point all season, with 22, 19, 15 and 16 turnovers.
The lineup news sharpens that matchup. Demin, Brooklyn's starting handler, is out for at least four games, so rookies Traore and Brown Jr. run the offence against the strongest forcing defence in this sample. Brooklyn's way to stay close is three-point volume, as in its close road losses at Cleveland and Boston. Detroit's perimeter defence held four of its five opponents to 36 percent or worse from deep, though. Brooklyn's home starts have also been slow.
I expect Detroit to build an early lead off live-ball turnovers. Brooklyn's bench shooters can trim it later, and Detroit's half court has gone cold in its last two games. That's why I'm siding with Detroit to win by a solid margin, with a little room left for one late Brooklyn push, rather than at the full spread.
