Maple

This looks like a match between a side that makes chances without the ball and a side that has the ball but does very little with it. Hertha play direct and in volume with modest possession, while Kiel keep the ball, win corners and then struggle to put anything on target. Kiel are last in the table, winless, and arrive thinner at the back than usual.

This match is about whether territory turns into a result. Juventus create far more than Celta Vigo on every shot-based measure, but their finishing has run behind their chances, so the gap in chances is clearer than the gap on the scoreboard is likely to be.

This one turns on Gremio's road record, not on Remo's form. Gremio have not won a single away league game this season, they create very little, and they arrive missing five regulars, three of them in defence. Remo have lost five in a row, but the play behind those results has been better than the scorelines.

Two sides who struggle to separate themselves from each other. Internacional sit 18th and Corinthians 14th, both create and concede around one expected goal a game, and neither has found a way to win lately. I am backing the match to finish level at the Beira-Rio, because the scoring picture is thin on both ends.

This is the last regular-season Jamsil derby, and the pitching matchup is the part I keep coming back to. Choi Min-seok has been the better arm all year, Lim Chan-gyu has gone three starts without a win, and the visitors have the stronger numbers over the whole season. The market still treats the home side as the clear favourite, and I think that leans on home field and old head-to-head results more than on what is on the mound now.

This one comes down to the arms. SSG sends out a first-year starter who has been one of the more reliable young pitchers in the league, while NC hands the ball to a starter who was gone after three innings and six runs in his last outing. Add NC's road form and I think SSG has the better of the game from the first inning to the last.

The market sees this Game 3 as a Padres home game with the better starter, but the season-long picture and the pitching history lean toward Milwaukee. The Brewers won 102 games and outscored opponents by more than 200 runs, while San Diego sits at 90 wins and a margin of about 36. Milwaukee also took both games in its own park by a single run, and the Padres bats managed only five runs across the two.

Finland are the group leaders and the shorter price, but the first meeting between these two was far closer than that suggests. Nine shots each, expected goals of 0.66 to 0.40 and a goalless draw, even though Finland held 61% of the ball. I think the gap at a neutral ground is smaller than the table says, and Belarus are the side I want here.

Luxembourg are the market's slight favourite here, but the hosts have not scored at home in four games and have just lost the players who were supposed to fix that. My read is that the home edge is thinner than the price suggests. Bulgaria are a mess too, which is why this is a game about who gets one goal, not who dominates.

This final comes down to who is carrying more miles in their legs. Saudi Arabia needed 120 minutes and a shootout to get past Qatar, and their own coach called it exhausting. The UAE played 90 minutes against Oman and arrive with the sharper scoring record of the two. That gap in load is the point my judgement turns on.

Kazakhstan are the home name here, but the numbers from their three games under the new coach don't show a team that creates much. Faroe Islands are unbeaten, have drawn every game, and have kept producing chances against sides that have the ball more than they do. My view turns on which team is actually better at making shots, and the answer so far is Faroe.

China are still treated as the clear home side here, but their last two home games tell a different story. They lost 0-3 to New Zealand and 0-5 to Palestine at the same ground within a week, and the goals came in every way you can think of. My view turns on a Tajikistan team that has been hard to beat by more than a goal, facing a back line that keeps getting opened up.

This one turns on what each side needs. Honduras sit fourth on three points and have to win their last group game, while Jamaica are second on six and a draw is enough to see them through. I side with the visitors because they are the team that can play the game on their terms, and Honduras have been shaky when they lead or have to chase.

I'm siding with the home team in Zenica. Bosnia have lost only one of their last eight at home, and Poland arrive without the suspended Lewandowski and with Kaminski injured. Poland's six goals against Romania came after a red card and a penalty in the 22nd minute, so I don't read that scoreline as proof the attack is flying.

This is a rematch four days after France edged Belgium 1-0, and I expect it to be just as tight. Both sides are short of the players who create their chances: France are without Mbappe and the suspended Upamecano, Belgium without the suspended De Bruyne and Tielemans. In three Nations League games under Zidane, France have scored exactly one goal each time from roughly the same chance quality, so I don't see the game suddenly opening up.

This is the last game of the NPB regular season, and the two clubs are in very different places. Fukuoka has the league sewn up and already holds its two-win head start for the playoffs, while Rakuten is handing the ball to Kenta Maeda for his final outing of the year. That gap in what the game means is what I'm building this slip on.

Hanwha are falling apart and Kiwoom have their number. Hanwha have lost five in a row and nine of their last ten, and Kiwoom just beat them 7-2 and 9-3 in this same ballpark. I am siding with the team that has been winning this matchup, and I like that the price treats Hanwha as the clear favourite anyway.

Nicaragua have no points and nothing to protect, and the Dominican Republic have a back line that has been giving goals away on the road. That mix points to a game with room in it rather than a cautious one. The first meeting between these two ended 3-2 and I see no reason for the shape to change much.

This one turns on a coaching change. Costa Rica sacked Fernando Batista and handed the team to Bryan Ruiz, who has run exactly one match so far. Haiti, meanwhile, have a settled plan under David Badía and already showed it against these same opponents a few days ago. I side with the team that knows what it is doing.

This looks like a coin flip on the result, so I'd rather lean on the one thing that has been steady: Israel are not scoring. They have one goal in three group games, and the chances behind it have been thin. Ireland have their own leaks at the back, which is why I'm not trying to pick a winner, but Israel's attack gives me the clearest read in this pairing.