This one turns on Gremio's road record, not on Remo's form. Gremio have not won a single away league game this season, they create very little, and they arrive missing five regulars, three of them in defence. Remo have lost five in a row, but the play behind those results has been better than the scorelines.
Gremio have played 14 away league games with no wins, four draws and ten defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 22. Over their last eight games they average 0.7 expected goals for and 2.0 against, with 11 shots for and 21 against. Gustavo Martins and Noriega are suspended, and Marlon, Caito and Dodi are injured, so the back line has to be rebuilt around Wallace and Balbuena.
Remo have a different kind of problem. They average 14 shots a game and lost 2-3 to Coritiba after 34 shots and 3.27 expected goals. Their five straight defeats came against Santos, Bahia, Flamengo, Coritiba and Fluminense, a tougher run than Gremio's place in the table suggests.
The market moved toward the home side after the absence lists came out, which fits what the numbers say about Gremio away from home.
