This is the last regular-season Jamsil derby, and the pitching matchup is the part I keep coming back to. Choi Min-seok has been the better arm all year, Lim Chan-gyu has gone three starts without a win, and the visitors have the stronger numbers over the whole season. The market still treats the home side as the clear favourite, and I think that leans on home field and old head-to-head results more than on what is on the mound now.
Both starters are chasing the same 15th win and both were knocked out after three innings in their last outings. Lim gave up six hits and four runs, and his last win was back on September 13. Choi gave up eight hits and four runs, but that start came four days after a 96-pitch outing at the Asian Games. This time he is on his planned five days of rest, and his manager said earlier there was no big physical problem. Before that rough night he was 14-4 with an ERA of 2.73, against 4.30 for Lim.
The team numbers point the same way. Doosan has scored 679 runs and allowed 616 this year, a gap of 63. LG has scored 709 and allowed 705, a gap of just 4. Doosan has also won eight of its last ten and averaged six runs a game over that stretch, while LG averaged three and a half in its last ten.
LG did snap an eight-game losing streak in its previous game, a 6-1 win over NC with homers from Austin Dean and Moon Bo-kyung and a bullpen that threw perfect innings. That matters, and LG owns a 10-4-1 head-to-head edge this season. But I could not confirm those games were played against the same starters, so I do not give them much weight here. LG is also dealing with captain Oh Ji-hwan's knee, a partial medial ligament tear that doctors say needs a month off, and he may only be a bench option.
The stakes do not tilt toward one side either. LG is level with KIA for third and plays them in the final game. Doosan has already clinched the postseason and is chasing fourth place, so both clubs will push hard. With motivation about even, I lean on the better starter and the stronger season profile.
