This looks like a coin flip on the result, so I'd rather lean on the one thing that has been steady: Israel are not scoring. They have one goal in three group games, and the chances behind it have been thin. Ireland have their own leaks at the back, which is why I'm not trying to pick a winner, but Israel's attack gives me the clearest read in this pairing.
Start with what Israel have produced. Their expected goals in the three group games were roughly 0.2 against Austria, 0.3 against Ireland and 0.7 against Kosovo. Over their last ten games they have failed to score in five. Their last two outings were a 0-3 and a 0-0.
The first meeting went to Ireland 3-0, and it was mostly Israel's doing. A defender slipping after stopping a cross, a loose ball in midfield, a pass through the back line: all three goals came in the first 25 minutes. Israel had 64 percent of the ball overall, yet they could not turn it into much, and Ireland's keeper made four saves to keep the sheet blank.
Israel do get into good positions. Against Kosovo they had several clear chances, with Abada and Barivo both in good spots and Halaili setting one up from the wing, and none went in. That is a finishing problem, not a creating one, and it has not changed in the matches I looked at.
Ireland are not watertight. They gave Austria a 2-2 draw after leading 2-0, and Kosovo's expected goals against them were over 2.5. Ireland's defenders are flagged with injuries and the captain's availability is unclear. Even so, of the five group games involving these two sides, the only two where both teams scored were the ones with Austria. The other three all had at least one team stuck on zero, and Israel have been that team most often.
